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Bob,
You're welcome. FWIW, I think hogs are very close to an important bottom, bwdik. That doesn't mean they will start going up right away, but rather they should stop going down. Current prices are pretty low... historically speaking. I refer you to this hog chart for a longer term picture
digisys.net
the basic site is this (I think weekly charts are updated on Wedesday and Friday) digisys.net
Before that, prices have been meandering between a very wide price range from the early 70's (low $.30 at the bottom, mid $.60 at the top)... not unlike the long term bean chart I posted.
Looking at the weekly hog chart, in elliott wave terms, price appears to be in a 5th wave down from the May? 96 top. This current 5th wave began from the April 98 corrective high, and can be clearly divided into 5 more waves. Both the weekly and daily charts are supportive of the same count.
Also, there is a 3.5-4 year cycle in hogs which should bottom soon (last bottom in late 94). I thought the forks would give me the heads up on the termination point of wave 5... but haven't so far. Nevertheless, I look for a low soon. With that said, I remember a relevant saying about trying to catch falling knives... so I will jump on board if I see a really convincing low, but given the protracted nature of the decline it makes more sense to wait for a minimal confirmation of a new uptrend before getting on board. In my experience, it is a lot easier, and fun, to forecast a low/high than it is to trade it for profit. I usually post my futures trades on the grain futures forum... so if I ever buy hogs you should hear about it there, fwiw. JMO, feel free to comment or throw stones... as always, time will tell. Talk to you later
Regards,
Frank
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