> If your friend finds that good method for picking stocks to AIM and
> then comes up with a web site, will you please post it?
Shamelessly...
If you want you can try out a rudimentary method I use in various forms right now which has some of the aspects they will be publishing, then...
quicken.com:80/investments/stocks/search/?page=Full
Step 1. Go to the URL above and go down the page until you see growth rates. Select every growth rate (5 yr, 3 yr, and 1 yr) as "at least 25%".
Step 2. Go to the bottom of the same page and select Beta between 1 and 2.
Step 3. Click on the "Show Results" button.
Here are the 40 stocks as of a few minutes ago...
ALTR ECGOF ACF BRL BBBY CDWC CATP CSCO CDG CEFT CCA DELL ESV ESRX FAST GLM HMK KEG LEVL MRL MXIM SUIT MSFT MODT NE PAIR PZZA PSFT PETD PM PPD PRST PDE REXI CKH SFSK TNL TLAB RIG
Step 4. Delete any stocks that are not showing projected eps gains next year! That should drop out all those oil drillers on the list ;-) and the rest should be suitable for AIM criteria.
quote.yahoo.com
[Out of this list I own LEVL.]
Eliminate any showing yr/yr contraction in earnings.
Eliminate any showing decrease in analysts eps estimates for the next year within the last 90 days. Use the detailed research link under each stock to see this.
Eliminate any stocks showing a decreasing trend in mean broker recommendation. (Also in detailed research) For an example of what to eliminate look at some of the oil drillers (NE, MRL, RIG, ESV, GLM...)
Eliminate any stocks not showing at least a projected growth of 15% over the next 5 years.
Once you do _all_ of that, there can't be more than a few stocks left. ;-)
If there are too few stocks for you to consider, then drop the 5 year number and keep the 1 year and 3 year growth criteria.
Step 5. Run the remaining stocks past this graphical routine.
geocities.com
Try to time the initial purchase when the green MACD line crosses above the red MACD line AND the On Balance Volume is in an upward trend AND the Money Flow is in an upwards trend.
Now, what have I really told you?
The first part where you do a screen at Quicken (not my friends site) will give you high growth companies showing the ability to grow through an entire business cycle (which is why you used the 5 year criteria). The high beta will give you volatility which allows AIM to prosper over strict buy and hold.
The next part allows you to throw out any companies that were doing well in the past, but are now running into problems (eps not increasing).
The graphical part allows you to make some sort of reasonable timing into your first purchase.
After that, you are on your own. ;-) I haven't figured out a good sell criteria yet!
The thing that draws me to this sort of a screening method is it is simple, easy to understand and selects stocks which might normally come up in a growth stock portfolio anyway, but allows you to have a clear cut rational for selection and timing your purchase.
AIM should allow you to buy and sell these, while the underlying prospects of the companies allow you to prosper until the company completely implodes as is the case in some technology stocks.
Now how was that? I took 8000+ stocks and whittled them down to perhaps 10 stocks to look at seriously in less than 30 minutes with two URL's and a few clicks. A'int the internet wonderful???
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Dave |
