IDC forecasts strong PC growth
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Unit volume in the worldwide PC market this quarter is expected to grow
year-on-year 12.2 percent, according to data released today by International Data Corporation (IDC). This strong outlook
reflects the ongoing strength of the Western European and U.S. markets as well as the return of slight positive growth to
Asia/Pacific and Japan.
Total 1998 worldwide PC volume is now projected at 89.2 million on growth of 11.1 percent. For 1999, IDC now estimates
worldwide PC market growth at 12.8 percent on unit volume of 100.6 million.
The Q4 worldwide market is being led by a big seasonal upswing in buying in Western Europe, a robust U.S. consumer market,
a rebounding portable computer market and continued rapid expansion of the population of Internet users. "We see the same
pistons driving the growth engine that we've seen all year," said Bruce Stephen, group vice president, Worldwide Personal
Systems Research. "We expect more of the what's driving the current market next year, albeit in slight moderation."
Worldwide growth continues to be led by the Western Europe PC market, which is projected to expand 15.6 percent
year-on-year this quarter. This region is being led by greater economic confidence in the all-important German market. As in the
U.S., the expansion of the low-cost consumer PC market continues and new types of retail channels for PCs, such as food
stores in the UK, appear to be driving market expansion. The region also continues to benefit from an increased focus from
global brands and a rapid increase in the number of Internet users
U.S. growth this quarter is pegged at 12.2 percent with the consumer PC market looking very strong fueled by a still-robust
economy, low-cost PCs, on-line buying and interest in the Internet. The still-awakening portables market is another important
growth factor.
The growth picture in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) appears to be improving. Stronger than expected third-quarter results
combined with strengthening currency and stock markets bode well for the regional PC market in Q498 and into 1999. PC
shipments in Q4 1998 are expected to increase five percent. However, there is still uncertainty in some areas such as Malaysia
and Indonesia, but the level of volatility has gone down considerably in comparison to the previous year.
The outlook for the fourth quarter in Japan is modestly better with unit volume expected to increase about five percent over the
previous year's quarter. The Japan PC market is still severely held in check by serious economic problems. In addition, there is
typically a falloff in business PC purchases in the fourth quarter, which follows heavier buying in the third calendar quarter,
during which the first half of the Japanese fiscal year ends. Market growth is being helped by good demand from the consumer
segment as well as a round of new portables from vendors such as Sony and Panasonic.
VENDORS
In Q4, IDC believes vendors well-positioned in the high-growth geographies (the U.S. and Western Europe), strong consumer
markets and the awakening portable segment will gain share. To that end, it looks like a good quarter for Dell, Compaq, H-P
and IBM. Apple should benefit by the holiday buying season and an aggressive promotional campaign. Despite some recent
concerns about fourth quarter performance, Gateway is expected to take advantage of the strong U.S. home computer market.
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