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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (6387)	12/9/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 18928

Hi Bruce, One thing that is striking me as odd about my Idiot Wave data these days is that we know there's massive speculation going on in the Internet Stocks. In fact, a couple of those companies are in the 1700 stocks of Value Line. This week YaHoo is shown as the Best Performer at $210, up 117% in just 13 weeks. However, 117% is meek compared to some of the smaller and newer Internet stocks. Because many of these stocks are not yet part of the VL 1700, my Speculation "radar screen" misses them. My Zeal "radar screen" was created several years ago to catch IPO surges as NewBees don't show up in VL 1700 either. Now it would appear I'm going to have to create yet another measure of speculation that has to do with relatively new, relatively small companies that live in a unique "sector!" I don't know how I'm going to do this. How to measure the expansion of one tiny sector bubble is going to be a challenge. Right now my Zeal indicator is showing very low risk. This is a great long term indicator. It usually stretches out a solid 18 months into the future. My normal Speculation indicator says that there's moderate risk. This indicator is much shorter term in its view. I don't know if we can afford to ignore the Internet bubble or not. Certainly the gyrations at the beginning of last week woke up a few speculators. However, the rest of the market is not being overly speculated by my measures. It is possible that it's just too soon after this last correction to properly measure speculation. Market breadth was pretty good until the middle of November. Since then it's been negative or neutral. That's part of why we're seeing a slow down in our AIM selling, I think. There's also the seasonal aspect of tax loss selling and finding a new home for those $$$ liberated by tax selling. This tends to push up the good stocks and depress the bad ones. I guess I'll be glad to see 1998 come to an end! It has been a decent year for me - I think! It certainly has been instructive to those who are relatively new to AIM! I know my IRA is up about 20% for the year. My personal account is not as good. I'll wait for final numbers at the end of the month. My personal account is about break even for the year to date. The biggest difference is that I started the year 68% invested, got all the way to 95% invested by the beginning of October and now am back to 91% invested. With the huge inventory at Veale's Equity Warehouse and AIM capping my risk exposure at current levels, if we have a decent year in 1999, AIM and I should do well. Best regards, Tom

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