From: Jim Battaglia
Good Morning Tom!! Hope you are well. I noticed that there seems to be a divergence in your wave cash amounts and my TVR. In the years we have been discussing this, I have never seen this. If I am correct, you are at 22% and my TVR (altho jumps quicker) than yours is at 30%.
Have a great Christmas!!! Have you gotten any snow yet? Our weather in Virginia has been absolutely beautiful.... Have a good day:
Jim
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Hi Jim, Thanks for the note.
It's interesting that your TVR has risen so quickly. With the moving averages built into the IW, it's slower to respond. It has risen from 19% to 22% in the last four weeks. Also note this week that the IW Oscillator indicates rising risk with a reading of +10. If we factor the "10" by the same factor that I use for getting the IW reading for mutual funds and then add it to the current value, the reading would be 28.67%. That's quite a bit closer to your TVR value!
The IW Oscillator is the difference between the components without the moving averages and with them. I use a 1.5 divisor to change the IW into the IW for mutual funds, so taking the 10 divided the same way gives a 6.67 value.
So, if the IW wasn't so poky, it, too would be quite a bit higher. Risk is rising rapidly again, but is still reasonable. 26.67% is the "average" value for the mutual fund IW reading since 1982. When risk is steadier, then my IW starts to line out closer to the TVR. With the rapid drop and then rise in the market, I don't think the IW has quite caught up!!
Best regards, Tom
PS: We could almost use the difference between the IW fund reading and your TVR as an Oscillator or Direction Indicator! |
