ONSALE 4Q Analysis!
Here are some facts and what ONSL shareholders could expect come earnings time in January.
1Q Revenues = $40,169m Cost of Sales = $45,087m Cost % above Sales = ( -12.2%)
2Q Revenues = $50,796m Cost of Sales = $55,549m Cost % above Sales = ( - 9.4%)
3Q Revenues = $57,825m Cost of Sales = $61,592m Cost % above Sales = ( - 6.5%)
Revenue Growth:
1Q to 2Q = 26.4% Growth [ (50,796 - 40,169) / 40,169]
2Q to 3Q = 13.8% Growth [ (57,825 - 50,796) / 50,796]
Cost % Above Sales Growth:
1Q to 2Q = ( - 2.8%) [ 9.4 - 12.2 ]
2Q to 3Q = ( - 2.9%) [ 6.5 - 9.4 ]
Based on these facts, here is what you'll likely see for the 4Q.
If ONSL reports the low end Revenue Growth of 13% for the 4Q then we will see Total Revenues of $65,342m.
Cost % Above Sales Growth avg ( -2.85%) means Cost % Above Sales for 4Q = ( -3.65%). [ 3Q -6.5% minus 2.85%]
Cost of Sales for 4Q = $67,726m [ ($65,342m x .0365) + $65,342m]
4Q Revenues = $65,342m
Cost of Sales = $67,726m
Cost % Above Sales = ( -3.65%)
Revs $65,342m ( - ) minus Cost $67,726m = Net Income ( - $2,384m)
Net Income ( - $2,384m / divide by 19,189m shares out = ( - .12 eps) First Call estimates ( - .16 eps).
A .04 cents earnings surprise over WallStreet estimates. This folks is the VERY LEAST ONSL will report and still beats the Street.
If you do the math yourselves, you'll come to the same conclusion. ONSL is on its way to profitability a lot sooner than many think. Your patience will be rewarded sooner than you think.
My 2 cents
Hector |
