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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: Bruce A. Bowman who wrote (6462)12/23/1998 7:40:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (1) of 18928
 
Hi Bruce, I think you're on your way to forming a new series of index readings for the market. Next you'll have to start an Index Fund and then sell spyders on the AMEX!!!

Thanks for the effort. I'm looking forward to seeing how this works out. Any time a relatively small portion of the market sucks up most of the speculative capital, it usually keeps the rest of the growth portion of the market somewhat flat. My ZEAL index was an attempt to measure this effect during times of IPO hype. If you look at 1993 you'll see a spike in new issues that overwhelmed the market for about 18 months. This same thing occurred in 1983.

Part of this internet thing looks more like the early BioTech days. No fundamentals - lots of potential. Speculative inflows of cash were tremendous then as well. As a sector, I don't know what to suggest as a Cash Reserve cap. Maybe this section should be run "by the book!" and let the cash just pile up. With such large price swings, maybe even expand the Buy and Sell Resistances to make very profitable trades LIFO basis. "Buy on dips" with AIM will be okay, but the dips should be substantial so as to not exhaust Cash too early.

The communications end of the business seems, as JZ Dave has pointed out, to be the place that's going to actually sell equipment to make the rest of it work. I own ADCT and ASND, and two chip makers that participate in some fashion in supplying such companies. I've a fairly large commitment to this end of the business - the only part of which I have any understanding.

Best regards, Tom
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