TexasDude, I like this game, and for a bottle of non-Texas fine wine I'll play. Not that I wouldn't be happier with a two or three year game, because I don't have that many ideas that I think have a good chance of shooting up within six or twelve months in this exuberantly high market, but a fistful of (I think) good 2-3 year plays. I note that the game differs from real investing, in that (1) the rules tend to reward risk-taking more than careful assessment of risks and potential rewards, and (2) you have to buy at an arbitrary time and be measured at arbitrary endpoints, rather than more carefully choosing entry and exit points, buying on dips or selling on spikes when the market offers them. And it's a pity one can't short AMZN, EBAY, ONSL, UBID, etc. But within your rules, the various entrants' picks may stimulate good discussion, which is the main point.
My ten choices are: SEPR, 118 shares at 85; MTC, 216 sh. at 46 5/16; AXPH, 1882 sh. at 5 5/16; BTRN, 4571 sh. at 2 3/16; SRCL, 588 sh. at 17; VVUS, 3902 sh. at 2 9/16; CORR, 808 sh. at 12 3/8; CHIR, 405 sh. at 24 1/2; ASTM, 3809 sh. at 2 5/8; LGND, 879 sh. at 11 3/8 (12/30 closing prices).
These aren't necessarily my "favorite" stocks, some of which are now very expensive, possibly near the top of a cycle (AGPH, CSCO, INTC), and others, whatever their promise, I think are less likely to move as much this year as the ten named above (ISIP, ICOS . . . ). A few others came close to making the list (GENZ, INCY, MCDE, a high-risk flyer on XOMA). INCY in particular came close (see the excellent thread on SI Subject 1554 , particularly posts by Rocketman), but I expect it's a terrific long-term play, less a six-month or 12-month trade.
In a couple of additional posts I'll describe my reasons for these choices, partly to spell out the reasons as a reality check for me, partly to provoke discussion, partly just to spread the word. The ten are mostly med/biotech, because that's what I follow in some detail, and because the sector is still horribly beaten-down even after its runup since September, still providing what I think may be real bargains.
-- RCM |
