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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector

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To: kolo55 who wrote (1939)1/9/1999 2:08:00 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 2542
 
Paul, I will comment on your reducing your margin position.

First let me say I believe I have been wrong in the $ investments I've committed (undercommitted) to the ECM sector and the timing of my sales (I sell scale up). You on the other hand, seem to me to have been 100% spot on correct in your purchases and your garnering of profits. I will assume you should therefore discount my comments -- but comment I will.

Some of these stocks have had terrific run ups. FLEX for example, from about low 20's to 80's just since October. In spite of the bright outlook for outsourcing, these companies are still just manufacturers and assemblers who will have problems in integrating their acquisitions (if that's where their major growth is coming from). And in this industry there's not a clear cut, special barrier to entry winner like a DELL or AOL.

To me, given the run up in stock prices, it only makes sense to take some money off the table. So I see nothing wrong with trimming positions - and as long as you are not issuing an outright sell signal here-- I won't panic -g-.

I have thought a lot about your methods over many months -- detailed research in industries growing 20% or more, concentrated portfolio, heavily margined. They work. BUT... I find it unfathomable that a retired person would invest this way. Concentrated and very highly margined. Absolutely crazy IMO -- nobody retired ought to jeopardize their funds (which is what I think is occurring)this way, nor should they have to have such a need for the profits. I think your wife should yell at you!

But as I say, you've been very, very right. And I have been wrong many, many times before.

JMHO and FWIW, Paul.
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