Well I have my answer from my wiseacre relative of OJ, if you get my meaning, if you catch my drift.
The message is as follows
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Happy New Year Pat-
I think that the very short answer to this is that (1) yes, things like
this can be mathematically modeled, although it takes stuff far more general
than statistics to do it. (2) Some have made large sums of money doing such
modeling, and some have lost even larger sums of money. The bottom line here
is that the past never EXACTLY repeats itself, but even a perfect
retrospective model would be a slave to the past. Finally, (3) the human
decision-making capability inherent in any skilled trader would not be
enhanced by arbitrary constraints, e.g., in this discussion, I will trade X
contracts, no more and no less.
I hope that gives at least one answer to your colleagues question.
On the other hand, I work in a business school, and I can tell you
first-hand that half the professors here have some sort of crack-pot scheme
to make zillions; but, sadly, they are still earning college professor's
salaries.
Wish Pat and the big guys my regards,
-xxxxxxxxx
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Just for reference my question to my friend was as follows.....
---------
Hey xxxxxx, is this a feasible drill? You used to teach this, didn't you?
I don't want to figure it out if it's a futile venture.
Hey, if you still teach it then it may be a good Exam question.
--------------
And then I posted an exact copy of your post. My friend is very good at this stuff. He was my professor in college.
So whatever he said, that's my story as well and I'm sticking to it. |
