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Technology Stocks : UCOMA UnitedGlobalCom

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To: Rajiv who wrote (12)	1/29/1999 8:46:00 AM
From: Rajiv	Read Replies (3) of 489

Here are my estimates.... Fair value of UIHIA excluding the UPC part - $15. UIHIA owns 77 million shares of UPC. The IPO price for the UPC shares - 28 to 31. # of outstanding shares for UIHIA (on a diluted basis ) - 42 million The market value of the UPC shares held by UIHIA might not get reflected in UIHIA as there will probably be a discount. Discount Factor (D) can depend on the hype, inability of UIHIA to ever sell all shares without causing UPC share price to crash, tax considerations, etc. Value added to UIHIA = (UPC share price) * (77/42) * D Fair value for UIHIA's shares = above + $15 The following table shows how UIHIA might trade with respect to UPC's post IPO trading (for various discount levels) UPC share price --> D 35 40 45 50 55 60 0.6 53.5 59 64.5 70 75.5 81 0.7 60 66 73 79 85.5 92 0.8 66 73.5 81 88 95.5 103 0.9 73 81 89 97.5 106 114 IMO, the conservative estimate - 53 (UPC at 35, D of 0.6) IMO, the most optimistic estimate - 103 (UPC at 60, D of 0.8) Comments ? Regards. Rajiv

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