I'd be extremely careful about playing w/ that kinda money on such short-term options. You just never know what could happen to move the stock lower. However, DCLK is presenting @ the Goldman Sachs tech conf. next wk. in NY (& perhaps 1 going on this wk.) so you might have some news that would push the stock higher. People are looking for a split & whether this materializes or not nr.-term might have an impact on the price.
I've read on a few boards that DCLK has been moving b/c the 2nd-/3rd-tier Net stocks have been doing well of late. I think those folks sorta have it wrong. The implication is that the 2nd-/3rd-tier cos. aren't as good, dominant or mature as the 1st tier cos. I think there's some post-hoc rationalizing going on here. People are saying @Home is on the 1st-tier b/c it's gone up so much. Yes, AOL, EBAY & YHOO have all gone up a lot & have dominant bizs, but I think the Net cos. that initially have done extremely well so far have been the more commercial, customer-oriented Net plays -- content & e-tailers like AMZN, AOL, EBAY, EGRP, etc. which are well-known. Recently, cos. like GNET, TGLO & XMCM have risen as people try to anticipate the next take-over candidate. However, recently the 1st-tier enablers for Net content & commerce have been moving nicely. The cos. that capitalize on the growth & speed of the net w/o having direct relationships w/ Net users. Cos. like DCLK, EXDS & RNWK. These cos. are the dominant firms/brands in their respective spaces and have started to move. But the moves are nothing compared to the moves of the aforementioned customer cos. People are starting to appreciate that these cos. have the reach of some of the big guys & that their biz models, despite the lack of customer rels., are extremely compelling.
I own DCLK & RNWK & am struck by the values rel. to other Net plays when considering their reach, alliances & potential. RNWK has like 50 mln.+ registered users & is the dominant player in the streaming of media via Net -- an area which will surely increase as does bandwidth. Don't be surprised if @Home come a-calling, or YHOO, or BCST. Think about it. DCLK has more visible competition -- NetGravity, 24/7, Modem Media Poppe Tyson, etc., but has amazing reach -- 5 bln. ads in Dec.?!? Think about it. DCLK isn't as obvious a takeover candidate, but compared to other Net play, it's still exceedingly cheap. If you believe in Net advertising, ya gotta believe in the perceived leader, w/ the services, customer reach & of course, the REACH. |
