Keith,
The Confirmatory Analysis book hasn't been published yet. Sorry. At first it will be published on CD-ROM, then in a paper form. Not sure where the schedule is at this point.
If you are going to mix Confirmatory Analysis and AIM, you need to be very careful. I would say the big long term winners in CA will be those like SWY (where a long term trend is caught and probably never sold), or BBY or ANN (where it catches a stock changing preception in the market). In both cases, these would not typically be AIM stocks and consequently mixing the methods might yield very poor results. If we catch a long term trend, the Buy and Hold methodology might work better than AIMing. If we get the beginnings of a short term trend which falls off in 9-12 months, the Buy and Sell method might work best.
I developed the tools on the website and would strongly recommend that you choose only stocks for AIM'ing which have good eps growth and volatility. You can go to confirmatoryanalysis.com , then to the Stock Research page and use the Stock Screening page to select high beta high eps growth stocks and then use MarketPlayer charts (on the Stock Research page) to confirm a possible candidate.
If you want to look at a chart pattern of a good AIM stock, then try:
marketplayer.com
and
marketplayer.com
The trick is to find a high growth stock like VTSS (see the first graph) and try to work out a method (like AIM) which allows you to buy when the forward p/e is relatively low and sell when the forward p/e is relatively high (see the second graph). Unlike AIM, my fly by the seat of my pants would have me completely out of VTSS at this point because it is trading at abnormally high forward p/e levels.
marketplayer.com
and
marketplayer.com
are similar charts for GALTF which I've talked about here. (I bought more today only to see it sink at the close). I don't AIM stocks but this might be a good candidate also. NN has a more checkered eps past than I would recommend for AIM'ing.
Ok, so I've bored you to death with my twist on things. If you are a subscriber to Confirmatory Analysis, I highly recommend that you join us for our online chat session after the months selections come out. We talk about the selections, but if the chat is slow we move into the thinking behind the method and any other topics that are of interest.
Tom, Are you interested in having an AIM chat session? I can show you how to get a "AIM Users" chat room at TalkCity.
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Dave |
