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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: LemonHead who wrote (6762)2/5/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: JZGalt  Read Replies (1) of 18928
 
Keith,

CA is really simple. Buy stocks which have good eps growth rates and prospects that are selling cheaply and also have good chart patterns. That's it. No voodoo involved.

There every reason to apply these very simple concepts to AIM when making the initial purchase. However, some of the criteria which CA uses would be too limiting for AIM and the selections would not be very good candidates IMO, but you can apply the concepts if you add in a criteria of a high beta. If you run the screen without the p/sales criteria you should get the AIM stocks which would pass a fundamental analysis screen.

I also helps if you start to buy the stocks part way down in their p/e range. For example, today JBL is getting whacked because of the news from SCI. I don't see anything in the SCI report that would indicate that JBL would be having the same problems... In fact JBL might be causing the problems at SCI so why is JBL down today over 5 points? Duh!

I guess the analysts just wanted to restock Tom's warehouse. ;-)

Unfortunately for me, I didn't bail when the chart turned negative yesterday (I use 65 day EMA). So I'll just ride this out. Fair value on JBL is about $50 ($2.50 forward eps X 20). Downside risk is $38. CA principles would tell you to wait until the stock quits dropping before making the initial purchase. Use a simple 65 day EMA and wait until the stock rises above that before jumping in with both feet. 20 day EMA give you the short term direction.

BTW, my take on the market as a whole is 1050 on the S&P is possible over the next 2-3 months. So take your time in selecting stocks and use Tom's IW cash levels to allow you to buy into this correction.

Good luck.
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Dave
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