<<I am curious as to how much of a time lag there was between your bad breadth alert to the the point when the sell off began in earnest --- both in 97 and 98.>>
In 97 it took less than 3 trading days to unfold the correction on Oct 27, which did not really end until late Dec 97. In 98, it took about 5 trading days for the first 10% correction in late July, followed by a fierce rally in August and then a gut wrenching decline until October. I think it will take at least until end of this week. Because, with each fierce bounce we can expect bulls to be more bold (so they hold) and bears to be more timid (so they cover quickly).
<<In the meantime, I think that another rally can be expected -->>
I think so too. The reason why said a sharp decline probably after 12th is that this week Goldman is holding a technology tout-a-thon the news from which will invariably spun as positive. Second, the senate will let the liar-in-chief lose and the market will try to break loose, a.k.a., kill the remaining few shorts. After the "Clinton's acquittal" rally we will be followed by "dell earnings" rally, and perhaps "amat earnings" rally. Then what? By late Feb and early March, we will be set-up for one of the worst warning season in the la la land (i.e. tech stocks area) If you followed the warnings of INTC, SCI, IM, TECD, AMD closely, fundamentals are out to lunch while stocks took-off on channel stuffing.
I think the fundamental even that will drive the market lower is the realization of weak fundamentals via profit warnings in the tech sector.
Bought some RMDY today for a quick pop. I could be playing with fire, though I would like to call it calculated risk.
Good luck! |
