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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

4:00 PM EST

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To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (6878)	2/22/1999 11:54:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (3) of 99985

Dennis, My problem is that no one saw this coming. Except Sew--he said there would be a rebound. My cycle guy saw it too, but not this magnitude. I think this thread has a bearish bias, which gets in the way. If TA cannot predict, then it is no better than psychoanalysis! Message 7925362 Message 7907868 Not everyone on this thread has been completely bearish. I think all you really have to go by is what the market gives you on a daily basis. With the intermediate term trend negative over the past couple of weeks, being cautious was warranted. However, during this whole seven week period the long term trend was never violated. I believe the magnitude that you pointed out is because this may not just be a rebound. Instead what we're seeing is a breakout. And breakouts should always come on this kind of strength. And although I agree that TA can be as frustrating as hell sometimes. I really do believe there were clues that said the market was going higher. A reversal on the VIX last week. A weekly reversal on the Dow. Prices getting to that "do or die" point on the charts, almost taking out their longer term trends. Rising utility prices. You almost had to have a rally like this to indicate decisively that this breakout should be taken seriously. Perhaps we're the ones that need psychoanalyis for attempting this on a daily basis. Good trading SO

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