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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board
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To: Larry Grzemkowski who wrote (7000)3/5/1999 10:58:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy  Read Replies (2) of 18928
 
Hi Larry, Congratulations! With your report from Profunds, you managed to be #7000 as Poster to the AIM BB! For this, you receive a really neat gift! Send me a Private Message with your home address and I'll have it in the mail and on its way to you!

As far as your report goes, well, that's quite an interesting possibility! All the more reason to keep AIM's Cash Reserve level up where an individual stock's should be (this week, the Idiot Wave is suggesting 49% Cash Reserve for new accounts).

The probability of 100 of the largest stocks in NASDAQ all dropping an average of 60% is rather remote, but last fall when the NASDAQ tumbled about 30% over several months, UOPIX fell 47%. Well, the Idiot Wave had been suggesting 50+% Cash Reserve at the peak of the market last summer and a 47% drop would have just about exhausted that reserve while you bought on the way down. So, you would have been nearly 100% invested EXACTLY at the bottom of the price cycle! Mr. Lichello says that's when we should have our biggest smiles!

If anyone has StockSystem's PCA program and would like to run a simulation, I'd appreciate it. I can give you the Idiot Wave's value on the date when UOPIX came on the market last year and we could run the simulation for the entire history of the fund. Then we'd know if it ran out of cash and all. It would be interesting to see the results. Unfortunately I don't have much history on it - just since near the market bottom.

Thanks again for following through on the "big bad bear" question.

Best regards, Tom
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