Here is a post off of the Yahoo thread. Forgive me if it has been posted already.
WACKER'S MOSER OUTLINES TROUBLED VIEW FOR WAFERS;
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT SEEN UNTIL 2000 TIME FRAME
Silicon wafer suppliers, having suffered through a very
difficult 1998 and seeing little immediate prospect for
relief, need better forecasting if they are to have
sustainable businesses, said Albrecht Moser, executive VP
of wafermaker Wacker Siltronic at a recent conference.
During a panel discussion at SEMI's ISS-Europe, Moser
said he had spoken to a couple of competing wafer
supplies just prior to the conference and come to
conclusions on both technology and financial issues.
>From a technology point of view, he said, "All wafer
suppliers are setting their targets based on the SIA
Roadmap. But there is too much customization, on oxygen
levels, etc. A lot of work is being done on the tuning of
programs to customer needs. Even though it's under the
SIA Roadmap, there is still a lot of tuning."
On the financial side, Moser noted, "all wafer companies
made deep red numbers in 1998. Area [of wafers shipped]
was down 9 percent; 1998 world capacity utilization for
200mm wafers was just 62 percent. And we have all
invested quite heavily in 300mm....The infrastructure is
there; we're waiting to see how we can utilize it."
As a result of this situation, said Moser, it has become
increasingly difficult to obtain new investments from
shareholders, despite growing need for technical
development. "It's very stressful, and very clear that we
need a better forecast," he stated. "Otherwise, I don't
know how we can work to the future."
The wafer market is seen growing just 1.5 percent in
1999, in terms of area, and just over 2 percent in
revenue, said market researcher Dan Rose of Rose
Associates, Los Altos, Calif. This follows a three-year
period in which pricing on workhorse 200mm epitaxial
wafers has dropped some 50 percent, to the $100 to $140
range, said Rose. He predicted that pricing on these
substrates would continue to drop but at a much slower
rate, declining just 10 to 15 percent over the next two
years. On the upside, improving chip market conditions in
2000 and 2001 should bring wafer revenue increases of 8.2
percent and 7.6 percent, respectively, said Rose.
Rose noted the "silicon cycle" of wafermaking
overcapacity and undercapacity, which saw 1995-96
shortages turn into a 1997-98 glut. "The severity of this
cycle was worse than any in prior history," noted Rose. |
