There are many companies addressing digital video. Any one could be a surprise player in digital TV, assuming that video becomes predominantly digital in the future. Personally, I think there is so much to be gained, that digital video will happen sonner rather than later, but I am only speculating.
Unfortunately, I am not an expert in Digital TV/Satellite systems. I work in multimedia, so I am familiar with digital video from the standpoint of a content developer.
None-the-less I'll take a stab at a surprise player in this market.
Videoserver (VSVR) is apparently extremely well managed as evidenced by their essential takeover of the core of multipoint video conferencing, and by their *huge* margins worthy of an Intel or Microsoft, and by their extraordinarily consistent growth, doubling every two years (approx 40%), until accelerating last year to 70%.
What does this have to do with Digital TV? Well, if their technology becomes standard for all forms of video conferencing, then there could be spinoffs into digital TV. (they currently hold 80% market share for the servers and software that's respnsible for managing the transmission and conversion of video formats).
Here's a bit of wild speculation based only on my sense of where interactivity might go:
First we had more or less planned TV shows, some being live. More recently, people are watching unplanned cop shows ("Cops") and MTVs "Real Life" and Home Shopping and many other shows that hit little pockets of life. People are getting bored with the formulas for traditional TV. So possibly, people will become interested in shows in which they are a visible part. Instead of callers into a talk show, there can be essentially video conferencing between many callers and the show. Maybe callers become part of small groups of callers
who receive each other's video in a box on their digital TV or computer screen. So maybe video conferencing becomes *integrated* into TV shows. Maybe video conferencing *becomes* an entertainment medium in its own right.
Pure speculation. What do you think?
I haven't bought VSVR yet. It has been in free fall (which is great for those of us who aren't in it yet). It's now dropped 50%, but still has a PE of 40. It posted *only* 40% growth in year over year results for its last quarter. Also, it's IPO was in 95, which makes them especially vulnerable to a big selloff by initially overoptimistic IPO buyers (ala Netscape). I wouldn't but Netcsape, but will by this one.
Hillary
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