Ok folks, so what is the scenario for the future? Some unknown
company is going to sweep in and steel marketshare from the big 3?
Companies are no longer going to upgrade their existing software
for new functionality? Customers are going to throw away multi-
million dollar investments to switch between the big three vendors
or switch to some upstart company that is not even on the horizon
yet? I like to look at IT budgets. And I see them increasing
over the next 5 years. This money is going to go somewhere besides
Cisco, Sun and Microsoft, it is going to go into leveraging an already
huge investment in ERP. Frankly, the idea that the market is saturated is ridiculous. True, the fat low-hanging fruit may be
exhausted in some of the more mature markets, but there are markets
yet to be tapped in South America, Asia, and one day (God willing)
even the former Soviet Union. Also, the PSBN idea is a good one and the deal with Cisco a great move. I have said it on this forum before, someday there is going to be a Microsoft of large business software, and large virtual corporations doing business seemlessly with each other. The cost savings to all is going to be enormous, and those not on the bus are going to be out in the cold. This is the ultimate prize. Yes, it is some years off perhaps, but it is where we are going to be and PeopleSoft is as well postioned as anybody to be
at the center of it. We had a big bubble in early '98 (largely driven
by Y2K) we are on the other side of the bubble at the moment, things year over year are not going to look good this year. There is nothing wrong with this company, there is nothing wrong with this marketspace, it is merely a low tide, a tide that will come back in. In the meantime, go chase those bloody net stocks. I am actually sleeping quite comfortable lately, still accumulating little chunks of PSFT as money comes available. I have a small investment in the net craze, and that is the only thing that makes my sleep a little uncomfortable.
My question to all is, worst case scenario, for PSFT, for the whole sector. Where is the money going to go? Why would PSFT continue to fade away? I hear internet this, and e-commerce that. Somebody has still got to keep the back office. I do not see PSFT and SAP (and to a lesser extent ORCL) being knocked out of the realm not matter what happens with the net.
Again, I speak from the position of someone in the industry, who
knows the products (SAP, PSFT and ORCL) and I know what we are tying to do for the future and what our customers and third-party administrators are looking for in the future and from where I sit the beat will go on after this short period of relative silence.
I welcome all comments (yes even from you gc).
I also think Michelle is quite correct in saying that the internet
pyramid is drawing from other good stocks, I would add it is also
warping investors sense of what constitutes a good investment.
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