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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures

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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (20489)	4/7/1999 9:26:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (2) of 44573

Bonds: Having some trouble with them. 122'11 is the middle tine and should be the third pivot. However, under normal circumstances the third pivot is usually higher than the second. If not it portrays weakness. So one of two things is going on. Bonds continue to trace along the middle tine upward till they are higher than 122'20 and they form the third pivot somewhere up there….or they retrace lower and this upmove that GZ expects is going to be less than powerful. Today they played tag with the middle tine and the FIB division line which is .38 between the middle tine and the lower tine. For tomorrow the FIB line sits at about 121'29 and the middle tine at 122'11. I think I will buy one at 121'29 and go for the '14 ticks that that move represents. If bonds break 122'11 they may rock up and away toward the upper FIB line of the fork which is in the 123+ range. SPX/SPOO: It is quite possible that we are at the upper tine of a fork that will send us back lower to about 1301 SPX. The upper tine is 1327 and falling slightly. We closed right at that line. It would also fit a nice pivot count bringing us to pivot four at 1299/1300 before taking us higher, quite possibly 1350+ SPX. The thing that bothers me is the timing of the move. If that is the case, then we won't see the highs till late May, early June (guesswork), not April. I have a hard time believing that, but heck anything is possible in this market. The larger term fork in play above has a middle tine at 1354 SPX and rising and that is where we are eventually heading. So as GZ said, any dip is a buying opportunity at this point. The 1300 range also is the area that babson lines are sitting. I wish I could post up this chart as the babson lines are simply beautiful. The action/reaction off of them for the last several weeks has been amazing. The current upper Babson is sitting at 1337 and the lower at 1301. I think that we will trade lower to 1301. Whether we do so from here or 1337 is a question mark. In any event 1301 SPX is a buy, 1337 is a sell. It is interesting in that if this is not the high we are sitting at, the middle tine of the fork still in play is about 1334, almost the same as the upper Babson line and the projected fork down move is again almost right on the babson line. Maybe that is why these two methods are taught in the same course….. -Scott

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