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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (22166)5/3/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: Stoctrash  Read Replies (1) of 44573
 
Hey i'm bullish man...but check this stuff out:
(from a service I get)

For the benefit of all subscribers, let me review a "Lorusso 5-point reversal pattern," as developed by Rick Lorusso, chief technician of futures at Smith Barney.

It is an expanding triangle, although not necessarily a classical symmetric one (this one is not). When it is a reversal down, it begins and ends with consecutively higher isolated highs (3 in a row), with two consecutively lower lows in between those highs.

In the case of SPM, it started with the isolated high on March 31 at 1324.50. This was followed by an isolated low the next day at 1291.50 (point 2). This was then followed by a higher isolated high than the first, on April 12 at 1372.50 (point 3). This was then followed by a lower isolated low (than April 1) on April 19 at 1290.50 (point 4). The fifth point was the isolated high last Tuesday at 1379.80, which was higher than points 1 & 3. Thus we have a 5-point reversal in effect, in which the fifth point is a crest. That is bearish. It is usually followed by a multi-week decline that takes out all the lows of the reversal pattern, and it is usually several weeks before the decline ends. If at any point the high is taken out, thew pattern is negated. I believe Lorusso found these patterns to have about an 80% reliability factor. Sometimes they turn into 7-point reversal patterns (about 15% of time). If this on does, then point 6 still takes out point 4, but only by a little bit. If it is a valid 5-pointer, then the decline should take it out by a lot more - I think down to the February low (1228 area) or lower.
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