OT - Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), storage, QII Investing
Tom, I told you I've strayed away from pure chip plays into slightly different ways of playing the continued expansion of the internet. Back in October I wrote about the chip companies as the best way to make money off the internet. That wasn't correct and if you can see the charts for Yahoo and AOL, I think you will get my meaning. Perhaps I should have restated it as the best and safest way to play the internet.
At that time I thought PMCS, BRCM, TXCC GALTF (now GALT), AMCC, LEVL would do very well.
exchange2000.com
Turns out the leadership of INTC must have been reading this and they bought LEVL. <grin> I still own PMCS and GALT and sold TXCC too early.
and I added UNPH to the list a bit later.
exchange2000.com
The only one of these that isn't up more than 100% in this timeframe is VTSS because in started to recover before the October post.
I've made some very bad calls here also (Elan hasn't gone anywhere yet and FVCX was cut in half, DLGC +50% then stalled, ORB down 25%).
If you are still reading, I have been putting funds to work in the ERP area and the area I call thin client support and the network storage area. Last time I talked about Enterprise Resource Planning was in early May. Since then I have put 10% of my net into these companies. SAP, ITWO, PSFT, ORCL, JDEC, SEBL are all holdings in this loosely defined area. Just as CHRZ and CTAP was beaten up and left for dead, these stocks were also hit significantly with slowing sales and y2k related issues. Since the stock market discounts the return to profitability in the price long before the eps are actually booked, I took positions in the ERP area over the past two months. If you don't know what ERP is and why it is important, you might want to start reading. These stocks are not going to stay at these levels for long although they will probably back and fill in the near term.
If you have a subscription to theSteet.com this is an interesting article. thestreet.com
In the thin client area I was able to accumulate a substantial position in CTXS a while back. If you have never looked at this company LOOK NOW. One of the biggest trends in the internet is the ability of the user to hook into the web with dumber and dumber hardware. Consequently when an application is needed, it must be pulled from the net and I believe CTXS is going to be able to capture a substantial portion of that market.
In the storage area, I have bought NTAP and LGTO. The concept here is the more internet expansion that occurs, the more that storage becomes a key factor keeping it running. You could also add EMC for storage, or SUNW for server technology.
Finally I continue to buy what I call Quadrant II stocks. It is a name I have coined to try to buy high growth technology stocks when they are selling at very low relative prices. The latest three selections were AHAA +120% two months ago, GCTI +30% last month and this months selection WIND.
One final selection. ASYT is a less than $20 stock that I believe will be worth $40 in next 12-18 months. ASYT is now one of my top 10 holdings.
Now before I get run off the thread, I think you can AIM all of these stocks, but I would have use a significant buy safe and a relatively low cash reserve.
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Dave |
