Overall, that's really too broad of a statement. 10 years from now as boomers pull
money out of market, I think things will be different.
This is a cycle which is also of great interest to me. Do you know of any thread where these broad demographics are seriously discussed?
With all the money pouring into 401(k)s, Keoghs, and IRAs, plus reinvested dividends and capital gains of mutual funds, I can't see any prolonged bear market for the near term future. That money has to go somewhere, and most of it is NOT going into bonds or money market funds. Not enough new companies are coming to market to absorb it all. Therefore, it has to go into existing companies, and the basic rule of economics is more money chasing fewer goods, the price goes up. Doesn't matter whether it's stocks or toilet paper.
But when my generation stops earning (which means stopping putting money into the market) and starts withdrawing money to retire on, it's Katie bar the door. I would not be surprised to see a flat market or even a bear market starting in about 2010 or maybe a bit later (depends how many boomers retire before 65) and lasting a good 20 years. And if there is any surplus money, the government is going to be taking it to support social security and medicare. We voting oldsters will outnumber the workers, and we WILL get back what we dumped into this system; count on it. |
