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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: The Philosopher who wrote (7607)	6/3/1999 1:03:00 PM
From: JZGalt	of 18931

This is a cycle which is also of great interest to me. Do you know of any thread where these broad demographics are seriously discussed? Not really. You might want to look at Louisa Yamada's book and Harry Dent's. It offers some compelling reasons for a demographic shift having a negative effect on the market. We can look at the Japanese market as an example of what might happen. [Before anyone jumps down my throat, there are many many reasons why the Japanese stock market has done so poorly over the past decade.] I used to belong to a private e-mail list and we thrashed this out over 2 years ago. Those of us who took the very broadview of the underlying support as in 401k deposits and the willingness for investors to put more and more of there non-housing assets in the markets have done very well staying 100+% invested. IMO, The best thing we in the US have in our favor is the technology companies that are providing the growth will also be those which "overseas" investors will buy well after the US boomers are selling the stocks. You can also make the case for the international drug companies and the international banking industry. A typical portfolio might be 20% in the technology area and then spread out in other areas. I think this is wrong. The commercial that comes to mind is the one where a son takes his father into Fidelity and says something like "just because you retired doesn't mean the world has stopped." (or words to that effect. The superior growth area is where you want to park long term money and with AIM you can choose your level of risk (via IW cash level) as well as profit from the fluctuations in some of these high beta tech stocks. If I had to lay out a retirement portfolio it would be: 65% blue chip technology companies 20% world financial companies 15% drug companies Forget consumer durables and staples, industrial cyclicals, energy and utilities. Concentrate on multinational US companies that the world will eventually want to buy into. I think they offer a safer long term holding than most "safe" investments. ---- Dave

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