ph, here's a follow-up question for Mona:
Mona, if part of you're thesis involves MU increasing its market share from "20%" to "23%"...
Define the market you are talking about.
I ask this, because frankly, unless you carve out a market within the market, I'm hard pressed to see how "20%" can be possible in terms of either revenues or total DRAM bits.
Message 9856748
So if you're doing that - say so.
Also, if your expectations are for MU to achieve 23%, how do you reconcile your projections against the separate reality estimated by Don Baldwin, MU's VP of sales and marketing in an EB piece several months ago:
With the [TI] acquisition, Micron's share of the DRAM market has gone from 6% to as much as 25%, Baldwin estimates.
eb-mag.com
[That doesn't look like it's going take you to the specific article, but if you goto the home page and do a search, it shouldn't be a problem. It's a VERY informative piece. Great insights on strategy and the futility of accurate market forecasts for this product area.]
Hey, how about that, wasn't it Dan Niles who wrote that it was a "given" that MU has 25% of the DRAM market.
Shame on us for assuming that "given that" was a rheotorical term intended to imply a basis in empirical fact...
...as opposed to a decriptive term illuminating how this insight was acquired <g>
ph, I agree Niles and the other Rip van Winkles out there will lower their estimates.
I think he'll lower them and then 6 weeks later raise them again at the Robbie Stephens Conference. Now on the surface, that may appear ridiculous, but really it's just a little bit of history repeating isn't it? He raised his numbers at the last minute right before they reported 2Q and then cut the thing and lowered his numbers roughly 4 weeks later 4-21-99.
Should it matter? No.
From a short-term trading POV will it matter? I guess if the Dow Jones/CNBC axis ram it down our throats without showing any sense of memory or context (i.e. their typical editorial bent when writing on the latest pronouncements of these exalted demi-gods) it will to some degree.
Good trading,
Tom
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