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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (21908)	6/7/1999 8:01:00 PM
From: Estephen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Rambus Gains as Analyst Ups Price Target on Stock By LISA BRANSTEN THE WALL STREET JOURNAL INTERACTIVE EDITION SAN FRANCISCO -- A vote of confidence from a Wall Street analyst helped boost shares in Rambus, a specialized-semiconductor company. In Nasdaq Stock Market trading, shares of Rambus jumped 5, or 6.9%, to close at 77 7/8 on news that Mark Edelstone of Morgan Stanley Dean Witter raised his rating on the company to "strong buy" from "outperform." Mr. Edelstone also raised his price target on the stock to $150 from $110. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 45.87 to 2524.21, while Morgan Stanley's high-tech 35 index added 18.87 to 1068.62. The Dow Jones Internet Index, meanwhile, gained 13.04 to 230.33. The Mountain View, Calif., company has been at the center of controversy about whether its technology for improving microprocessor performance will be ready on time and will be widely adopted. Rambus has a communications technology that channels data between two crucial parts of a personal computer: the microprocessor and the dynamic random access memory chip, referred to as the DRAM. It's core technology, Rambus DRAM, will compete against another technology called synchronous DRAM that also speeds up communication between the microprocessor and the DRAM. Semiconductor giant Intel backed Rambus' technology and is incorporating the company's technology into a new line of chips code-named Camino expected to be introduced by September, about three months later than they were originally expected. The combination of the delay and worries that SDRAM might slow the adoption of Rambus' technology had driven shares in the company down 50% below their 52-week high of 109 15/16. But Mr. Edelstone said he believes that the introduction of the Camino chip in September should go a long way to easing fears about delays in the technology. A longtime Rambus bull, Mr. Edelstone conceded that lower DRAM prices could lead to a slower transition to Rambus's technology if PC manufacturers initially choose a cheaper technology. But he added that while adoption might initially be slightly slower than expected, it will be strong by 2001. Because of the potential for slower adoption in 2000, he lowered his estimate of earnings for fiscal 2000 -- which ends in September -- to 80 cents a share from $1 a share. Although he hasn't released an estimate for fiscal 2001, he said he believes earnings could grow by at least three times 2000 levels. By 2002 or 2003, he added, earnings could hit $6 to $8 a share. In general, the analyst community agrees with Mr. Edelstone's view. Of the five analysts that cover the company, two have it rated "strong buy," two have it rated "buy" and one analyst has a "hold" rating on the shares, according to a survey by First Call. Seth Dickson, an analyst at Warburg Dillon Read, said he agrees with Mr. Edelstone that worries about SDRAMs replacing Rambus DRAMs are misplaced. He also has the stock rated "strong buy" and has a 12-month price target of $150. One of the main reasons that SDRAMs came to the fore at all was because of the delay in Rambus DRAMs, he said. While the SDRAMs may be a decent intermediate solution, he said, they aren't as simple, or ultimately as fast, as the Rambus technology. The Rambus-based chips will cost more than SDRAMs in the early days, he added, but he estimates that the costs will fall quickly so that by 2001 it is the same as for the SDRAMs. Still, he said, until that happens and there is widespread adoption of the Rambus technology, trading in the shares could be volatile. "The stock's going to be a little bit rocky, but it should do pretty well," he said.

To: MileHigh who wrote (21908)	6/7/1999 9:50:00 PM
From: unclewest	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 93625

to all of the regulars. i have stuart's and tom's pro-forma spreadsheets for rambus. actually stuart left me with a disc full of info. i have studied it in and out. most of his #'s come from respected analysts, some from rmbs, and some pretty conservative #'s from their own dd. stuart told me that the spreadsheets were developed by tom. together they plugged in the #'s. many of their assumptions are quite conservative imo. there are a few that i think are high and many that i think are too low. i should get some express mail deliveries tomorrow from other thread members, guru, and other sources that should provide the info i need to confirm their #'s my plan was to leak all of this to the thread over the next week or two. in view of today's announcements, i feel compelled to share certain info now. i will post more as i become more comfortable with all of the numbers. their prediction is for eps of .40 in 1999 4.62 in 2000 16.87 in 2001 36.10 in 2002 using there forecasted pe of 40 in 2002 you get a share price of $1,444. i appreciate all of the helpful pm's, e-mails and phone calls i received the last time i mentioned the name stuart. i also appreciate all of the help i have received in tabulating all of this info. i would like to say to the skeptics please evaluate my posts. take what you want. discard the rest. i do that with your posts. you cannot hurt my feelings. but please only pm me, if you have something that will help. i intend to post all skeptical and negative pm's on the main board in the future. i used to key on the mckenziewebster aka reh prediction of eps $23.00 in 2002. i know i posted that at least 10 times probably more. using his old numbers and the analysts new numbers i think reh was conservative. unclewest