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To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5722)	6/9/1999 10:34:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Picking up the gauntlet... There will be no rate increase, and the bias will be reset to balanced. Why? Because Alan and the voting members read this thread; and now know that this is the only sane course of action. :^) Did I take the challenge seriously enough. LOL Ian.

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5722)	6/9/1999 10:43:00 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 15132

Will Rates Rise or Will They Stay the Same? Vote Early, Vote Often... The only reason Greenspan will raise rates by 25 basis points is because the Fed gave an extra insurance reduction when the world was panicking last fall. it is time to take it back. That said, the fed will be DONE raising rates for the year. there is NO inflation, commodities (copper, gold, tin, you name it) are near all time lows, the world is awash in excess capacity. The recent CPI was due to oil and the effect of the oil price increases working its way through the system. However, oil isn't going significantly higher from here. The demand isn't there and there will be spot cheating by OPEC countries. The internet and the worldwide competition it fosters will keep inflation at bay for the foreseeable future. Jay

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5722)	6/9/1999 10:59:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Respond to of 15132

The FED will tighten by .25 because the market will have recovered by then and once again be situated at 35% above the model the Fed uses to determine the fair value of the stock market. 35% excess valuation is equivalent to the value in 1929 and 1987. Greenspan will want to let some air out of the bubble. Of course since there is no way he would ever admit this, even if it happened to be true, by choosing this reason I am assured to have the wrong reason. <VBG> Carl

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5722)	6/10/1999 12:38:00 AM
From: Barry Grossman	Respond to of 15132

Mr. GreenJeans, My guess is there is no raise and bias to raise is maintained. No inflation and fear of damaging the business recovery in Asia and in Europe will preclude a rise right now. I think the market will rally before the end of the month in anticipation of falling rates in the bond market when the Fed does nothing. Remember, just a feeling and only a guess. Staying very long. Barry

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (5722)	6/10/1999 1:03:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

MisterGreenJeans re: rate rise. We seem to be thinking alike on these issues lately. I see 1/4 point rise at next meeting unless extraordinary signs of economic weakening or low inflation appear in interim. Also Greenspan wants to get economy under control now rather than multiple tightenings in an election year. With current above trend growth and huge wealth effect taking back the last rate cut will be pretty easy. Trying to end up with a soft landing is of course the hard part Marc