Hard Disk Drives: Sales Revenues Stumble in 1998, But Disk Drive Industry Starts Upward Sales Trend in 1999
Thursday June 10, 7:00 am Eastern Time
Company Press Release
biz.yahoo.com
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 10, 1999--Several disk drive manufacturers placed a higher priority on market share than on profits during the 1998-99 period, according to the recently released 1999 DISK/TREND report on rigid disk drives. As a result, worldwide hard disk drive sales revenues were down 5.2% in 1998, despite an 11.1% increase in unit shipments.
In 1999, the industry is just as price competitive, but overall sales revenues are forecasted to increase 7.7%, boosted by a 16.1% increase in unit shipments. The industry shipped 144.9 million hard disk drives in 1998, and the projection for 1999 is 168.3 million, with the forecast for 2002 set at 252.9 million drives. By 2002, the industry is expected to have total sales revenues of $50.3 billion, as shipments of hard disk drives follow the upward path of various types of computer and consumer markets, and as average disk capacities continue to escalate.
Here are other highlights from the 1999 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives:
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-- DISK/TREND shipment data is segmented by computer platform, with
breakdowns for "desktop" drives used with personal computers,
"mobile" drives for notebook computers, and "server" drives
typically used with mainframe or network file servers, plus high
performance workstations. Currently, desktop drives dominate
shipments, with 74.9% of the 1999 estimated worldwide total,
followed by server drives at 12.7%, and mobile drives with 12.3%.
-- Several major computer manufacturers produce "Captive" disk
drives -- the drives they sell with their own computer systems.
Both captive drive manufacturers and independent drive producers
also compete in the "noncaptive" market, selling disk drives
through distribution and "OEM" drives to other system
manufacturers. DISK/TREND's data shows that the noncaptive sales
channel is a key to the industry's future growth, expanding from
76.5% of 1998 sales revenues to 83.7% in 2002.
-- There's no stopping the upward movement in average disk drive
capacities. Drives in the 3 to 5 gigabyte range held the lead in
1998 shipments, but the market's appetite for more capacity goes
up every year. In 1999, leadership has already moved up to the
5-10 gigabyte group, with 40-80 gigabyte drives forecasted to be
2002's leading product group.
-- The overall leader in sales revenue was again IBM, with 27.1% of
the worldwide total, including a combination of captive and
noncaptive sales. Second and third places, involving only
noncaptive drives, went to Seagate Technology, with 19.8%, and
Quantum, with 12.4%. Both companies lost market share in 1998, in
the face of severe competition.
-- Only those disk drive producers which are well suited to an
environment of very short product life cycles and intense
competition manage to survive. 59 companies manufactured rigid
disk drives at the beginning of the 1990's, but in 1999 only 18
active or announced manufacturers remain, a net reduction of two
from the previous year.
-- The race to deliver ever higher capacities and very competitive
prices has been tough on disk drive manufacturers' profits, but
it's been a good deal for the industry's customers. In 1988, the
average price per megabyte for all hard disk drives was $11.54.
In 1998, the average price had fallen to 4.3 cents, and the
estimate for 1999 is 2.3 cents. By 2002, the overall average
price per megabyte for all disk drives is projected to be 0.3
cents.
In addition to individual revenue and unit shipment projections for rigid disk drives in nine product groups, the DISK/TREND Report, now in its 23rd year, provides statistics on disk drive price per megabyte, competitive market shares of manufacturers, and a review of data storage technologies. The report also contains basic product specifications on 389 disk drive models and profiles on the 18 existing manufacturers of rigid disk drives, plus start-up firms and recent industry dropouts.
The new study on the worldwide rigid disk drive industry was released as part of the 1999 DISK/TREND Report, a detailed annual business review of the worldwide disk drive industry published by DISK/TREND, Inc. A separate report on optical and removable disk drives will be released in July, and a study on disk drive arrays will be published in October.
The 1999 DISK/TREND Report on rigid disk drives is priced at $2,960. Subscriptions to the complete 1999 DISK/TREND Report, including the individual reports on rigid disk drives, optical and removable disk drives, and disk drive arrays are available individually or at the discounted price of $6,240 for the complete set by contacting DISK/TREND, Inc., 1925 Landings Drive, Mountain View, CA 94043, or through the company's web site, www.disktrend.com.
For additional information, see the attached shipment summary, or call Jim Porter or Bob Katzive, 650-961-6209
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RIGID DISK DRIVE UNIT SHIPMENTS
SUMMARY BY DISK DIAMETER
---------------Forecast-------------
Worldwide
Unit shipments 1998
(000) Shipments 1999 2000 2001 2002
------------ --------- ------ ------ ------ ------
5.25 INCH 4,073.9 2,175.0 1,095.0 400.0 --
3.5 INCH 123,047.1 145,188.8 168,385.0 193,330.0 220,330.0
2.5 INCH 17,729.9 20,817.0 24,090.0 27,740.0 31,850.0
1.8 INCH OR LESS 115.9 173.0 250.0 475.0 750.0
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
TOTAL, ALL GROUPS 144,966.8 168,353.8 193,820.0 221,945.0 252,930.0
+11.1% +16.1% +15.1% +14.5% +14.0%
Notes: 3.5" totals include 3" and 2.5" server platform drives.
2.5" totals include 3" mobile platform drives.
Source: 1999 DISK/TREND Report
RIGID DISK DRIVE SALES REVENUES
SUMMARY BY DRIVE CAPACITY
Sales revenues -------------Forecast------------
in millions of 1998
U.S. Dollars Revenues 1999 2000 2001 2002
-------------- ------- ------ ------ ------ ------
Disk cartridge drives 271.1 180.6 187.9 210.5 242.5
FIXED DISK DRIVES
Less than 2 Gigabytes 372.1 84.7 58.1 80.2 96.7
2 - 3 Gigabytes 3,906.5 1,237.2 338.6 106.2 --
3 - 5 Gigabytes 12,339.6 6,116.3 1,568.5 470.0 148.6
5 - 10 Gigabytes 9,229.5 12,149.4 7,691.6 2,253.4 737.5
10 - 20 Gigabytes 3,736.5 10,604.7 14,171.7 8,771.1 2,926.3
20 - 40 Gigabytes 62.4 1,757.7 10,053.5 15,968.7 10,247.6
40 - 80 Gigabytes 159.1 269.6 2,044.8 11,681.1 18,577.2
More than 80 Gigabytes -- -- 170.2 3,419.0 17,341.9
-------- -------- -------- -------- --------
TOTAL REVENUES 30,076.8 32,400.2 36,284.9 42,960.2 50,318.3
Source: 1999 DISK/TREND Report
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Contact:
DISK/TREND, Inc.
James N. Porter or Robert H. Katzive, 650/961-6209
jporter@disktrend.com
bkatzive@disktrend.com
www.disktrend.com
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