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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (92)	6/10/1999 11:41:00 AM
From: John Lee CA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Outstanding work. Thanks! John Lee

To: J.T. who wrote (92)	6/10/1999 11:55:00 AM
From: John Lee CA	Respond to of 19219

JT, Sorry, I thought you meant SI post #5. I do see it and have printed out the new version. I am starting a log of your analysis. It is very educational and informative. Hope to begin using it to trade and make some money. John Lee

To: J.T. who wrote (92)	6/11/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

For sure, I have made my share of mistakes. I have learned from my mistakes and try to get back on the horse after getting bucked to the ground. Back-testing is important. Who said you could never call a market top? I started preaching caution on April 28, 1999, two plus weeks right before the market top on May 13, 1999 in the DOW and SPX: On IDEA post 25,780: <OT...... Race of "RUN FOR THE ROSES" is nearing the finish line very shortly now. Like any good poker player, know when to hold 'em and know when to cash in the vast sums of chips and let the gravy ride. IDEA takes the prize. Now then... Don't let anyone rob you of your (PRIZE) profits. Greed makes folly of us all and is a great temptor. Certainly the markets can go up another 3% to 5%. But with major indices at or above 20% of their 200 DMA you know there will be more to be made when the rubber band snaps back>... I mentioned High Alert Status and RUN FOR THE ROSES WAS OVER ON MAY 21, 1999: Message 9656650 Message 9657522 Post 26548 on IDEA: <In the past you always had compelling argument of leadership sector. Today there is none. Only dead-cat bounces. This thread is not meant to scare anyone or raise alarm, only awareness that market rules can change at anytime and market does bidding for no one. I see market contraction into July 4 holiday weekend with bits of minor rallies along the way. This is my biased opinion only. June is the second worst month statistically for market last 50 years at it is down 28 times and up 22 times for SPX and DOW. Stock Traders Almanac says June tends to be a down month during bear markets. And if we have had this tremendous bull run since early Oct low, whither and when comes the correction? My bet is now. Followed by summer rally in July.> Why the time was now for the correction?: Message 9765197 Answer: Because there is no fear in this pull-back: Message 9884931 And our dear friend Jerry Favors to thank the ultimate contrary indicator and kiss of death for bulls. This is why the BULL-FROG in warm water always gets cooked: Because of COMPLACENCY. NO FEAR OR RESPECT OF MARKETS. And the problem with Interest Rates? Message 9888446 It is really about ASSET INFLATION. Where now? LOWER, AND RETEST OF 200 DMA'S MORE REASONABLE VALUATION LEVELS and opportunity for great values ahead. Best, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (92)	6/14/1999 3:15:00 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

MARKET COMMENTARY, June 14, 1999 Mid-afternoon update Some observations: 1) DOW strength is masking underlying broad market weakness. Oils, chemicals, and cyclicals are keeping the index strong. Definitely late in trend stuff. Obvious observation of weakness is in interNUTS like DOT, IIX, and GIN Index. AOL, EBAY, EGRP, CMGI et al is breaking the spirit of orbital bulls. They now need to rethink strategies going forward as the rules of the game have forcefully changed. SPX is listless in this rally but nevertheless is still up. 2)I have mentioned CONTINUED TROUBLE WITH BKX and its life-support it needs to stay above: Mita Post #92 <BKX gapped down this morning on the open from yesterday's close. We are now at 824 and near the lows of the day. First close below 822.67 and we are on High Alert Status. Second close below this level drives another nail in nirvana bull argument to new highs now and commencement of intensified correction.> We got down to intraday low of 820.92 and have bounced off this 822 low support again. We are now back up to 826 and this would be a technical plus for the bulls if it finished near the highs of the day at 828 area. 3) RUT is breaking down and needs to hold 832.50 support. We are near lows of day at 833.20. TWO CLOSES BELOW 832.50 AND THIS WILL DEAL ANOTHER RIGHT HOOK TO BULLS. 4) SPX is tired and dragging its @ss along DOW coat-tails. I am tightening this index up: TWO CLOSES BELOW 1,293 AND BOYS WILL RUN THROUGH 1,281 LOWER SUPPORT AND ATTEMPT TO BRING IT BACK UP above this important support. TWO CLOSES BELOW 1,281 AND BEAR CORRECTION ACCELERATES LIKE FIRE CATCHING WIND. 5) VIX IS GAINING MOMENTUM OF STRENGTH. Again my post-MITA 92 mentions critical resistance levels that we are fast approaching: < VIX INDEX is popping up much higher this morning. This index is an early indicator of market trend changes. We have established two day support at 23.45 and 23.47 June 4 and June 7. Two day close below this level and market reverses back up. Resistance is at 28.70. TWO CLOSES ABOVE 29.66 AND THIS CORRECTION ACCELERATES DRAMATICALLY. We are at 26 interday right now.> VIX is now pulling back to 26.75 from intraday high of 28.07 6) DOMINOE EFFECT OF ONE INDEX AFTER ANOTHER IS BREAKING SUPPORTS. THIS BECOMES CANCEROUS AND EVENTUALLY CATCHES ON TO THE STRONGEST INDICES LIKE SOX AND DOW. 7) RALLIES ARE BEING SOLD INTO STRENGTH. 8) I WILL INTRODUCE SEVERAL NEW INDICES AFTER THE CLOSE WHICH WILL ENHANCE OUR LASER-BEAM IMAGE OF ADDITIONAL EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OR POTENTIAL CRACKS IN BULL ARGUMENT. Best, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (92)	6/17/1999 2:04:00 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I have taken liberty to post MITA 92 on June 10 and why I was concerned. I will answer these concerns point by point. <1) I have noted full well the INREASING BOND YIELDS backing up repeatedly and TWO CLOSES ABOVE 6% YIELD AND THE CORRECTION INTENSIFIES. Today is day 2 and we sit at a morning yield of 6.06%. Unless we get a huge reversal and close back below 6%, MARKET IS HEADED LOWER.. We topped out on the bond yield cash 6.135% few days ago and are now at 6.074%. Assuming Mr. G doesn't brow beat inflation and send imminent warning message of danger of 2 rate hikes, BONDS ARE GOING TO RALLY AND RALLY HARD AND YIELDS COULD FALL BACK DOWN TO 5.96% IN A HURRY WITHIN A WEEK. THIS WOULD STAMPEDE BULL TO NEW HEIGHTS.Eventually 5.88% <2) VIX INDEX is popping up much higher this morning. This index is an early indicator of market trend changes. We have established two day support at 23.45 and 23.47 June 4 and June 7. Two day close below this level and market reverses back up. Resistance is at 28.70. TWO CLOSES ABOVE 29.66 AND THIS CORRECTION ACCELERATES DRAMATICALLY. We are at 26 interday right now.> VIX IS TOAST with one more close below 23.45. Today we closed at 23.21. COAST IS CLEAR 3)BKX gapped down this morning on the open from yesterday's close. We are now at 824 and near the lows of the day. First close below 822.67 and we are on High Alert Status. Second close below this level drives another nail in nirvana bull argument to new highs now and commencement of intensified correction. Tested support twice and it held above 822 and we are now off to the races. Watch the rally run. I will not get concerned unless we revisit 822 with a Mr. G imminent danger comment. 4)DOW pulls round trip up to 10,909 in mesmerizing fashion back down to current levels and 10,620. I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED FULL WELL TWO CLOSES ABOVE 10,887 AND WE GO LONG. THIS DID NOT HAPPEN. I simply did not concentrate on other indices because I wanted to establish Market Index Laboratory. This will be completed after close tonight. A house (new thread) must be built on firm foundation and not on sand and fork tongues and hence the whole thrust of this thread is built on foundation of clear concise Market Indices. Plain as day with no need for astrological reads. A CLOSE BELOW 10,660 AND WE ARE ON HIGH ALERT AS THIS IS 50% RETRACEMENT FROM 10,945 INTRADAY HIGH ON SET ON JUNE 7. Two closes below this level and and selling correction accelerates to test and potential blow through important 10,519. Two closes below 10,519 and market will test 10,200. I may be jumping the gun here since we need two closes above 10,887 and ideally 10,909. With all noted indices holding firm support (DOW, SPX, BKX, RUT), I do not want to miss potential updraft in the next two days with option expiration. We may take out 10,909 tomorrow with clear read from Mr. G or option boys may hold it tight until after Friday's option expiration and let it run hard to the upside next week. At the very least, I believe we are going to test this 10,887 level in the next two days. If Mr. G. is doesn't rattle rate fears, 11,000 in two days is not out of question. 5) Lastly, Jerry Favors is extremely bullish and this is the kiss of death for bulls as he is ultimate contrary indicator. <ggg> I am no fan of Favors and his wizard predictions. I don't believe in wizards, riddlers, soothsayers, bradley timing models, or ouija boards. Nuff said. Best, J.T,