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Strategies & Market Trends : Grain Futures Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (589)	6/11/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: nicewatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 645

Hi John, thanks much for posting commercials article. I've been looking at the data for a while, but I'm sure your post will benefit others here. I've already seen some of Mike's committment charts.... there are also a few places that post on the web. I think the commercial stuff is a good tool, but it is not fool-proof, although i guess nothing is. <g> When commercials are wrong, they tend to be wrong in a BIG way. For example, in february, commercials were at or near record long positions in cocoa. Once the 1500 support level broke, price managed to drop another 600 points until recently. From my observation, commercials are very good at drawing lines in the sand and defending them (in a timely manner), but when they fail..... watch out! The other interesting thing I've noticed is that the commercials of various markets differ in their timing ability. Apparently in the early 90's the CFTC made changes to the dataset, without really advertising it. I know that the database found here -for free- is corrected bullishreview.com but that's not the case everywhere... I've seen COT charts posted that have not adjusted for the changes.... still! here's the CFTC page cftc.gov FWIW, talk to you later Regards, Frank