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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (46300)	6/13/1999 9:05:00 PM
From: Keith A Walker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

I am pretty much in agreement with you Skeeter, however, are you also arguing factoring in real supply and demand. Is it possible, even remotely possible, that demand will begin to soak up the increase in worldwide production? At some point the fabs can only deliver so much, right? Or, am I just terribly naive to this business... By the way, does anyone on this thread know what worldwide capacity for xRAM is? I would bet that at some point, we will be hearing of undercapacity rather than the horrid overcapacity this business has been suffering from over the past couple of years. Just a few thoughts going in to tomorrow. Good trading, Keith

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (46300)	6/14/1999 1:33:00 AM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

From the article >>Including the three, all Asian makers sold $12.04 billion worth of DRAMs globally in 1998, accounting for 78.5 percent of the world total of $15.35 billion, Dataquest data showed.<< Skeeter, you said: add in mu and you are in the 90%+ range. a few mom and pop shops shutting down doesn't matter - a big boy must give up the ghost. I think you better re-read, Skeeter. biz.yahoo.com Taken together Samsung, LG/Hyundai, NEC, and Toshiba account for only 53.9%. The difference between that number and the 78.5% number for all of Asia are the various Asian firms which you describe as "mom and pop shops". As you can see, they account for nearly 25% of the market, and adding in MU does not change the fact that 1/4 of the current supply of DRAMs comes from sources other than "the big boys". Carl