Mike,
Yes, I have heard/read that 3-year statement before, and I questioned it myself. I'll have to go back and read it again in the Communications Act of 1996, again, but as I recall it was not as straightforward an issue as waiting out an anniversary as the 'dummies' quote would have you believe.
In fact, I think someone here in this LM thread, or over in the VoIP section, set me straight on this in the past. Here's where the improved search tool would come in handy. [AHhaha, see what I mean?]
You say,
"As I ponder DSL deployments, I think I'm tending to think VDSL is the only ticket to compete with the MSO's cable pipe for the residential customer. I just don't see the twisted copper pair being able to compete any other way."
VDSL, in its expanded form, may be the ticket to compete with the entire bundle of Cable's potentials, but it's not the only ticket if we're only considering the Internet access part. First, I'd like to say that the ILECs should be focusing on deeper fiber, in any event, but if it winds up being only a matter of thwarting off cable modem competition, then I think it doesn't take a Howitzer to compete with a pea shooter. It only takes something a little better than a pea shooter. ILECs have never been known for their high fire power in the way of overkill, when they absolutely didn't have to resort to same, or when it wasn't something that was inherited in their DS-0 design model for the outset.
[The only time they employ network resources in an oversized manner is when it is wasteful, by today's statistical standards, as would be the case in the instance of unused bandwidth capacity that is tied up due to its dedicatedness for the duration of a call. In other words, the switched versus packet argument, where the telco model comes up looking like the loser.]
Unless the cable folks get their segment sizing straight, and reconstitute their grades of services, and alter the rules concerning what they will permit in the last mile, I think that the ILECs need only look as far as providing reasonably priced basic ADSL services (which are extensible in both speed and feature richness in the future, if need be) in order to be competitive.
1.5 Mb/s in the downstream will be like a luxury on some cable systems before long, if my gut-level projections and intuition [which are derived from many years of heuristics in this regard] are correct. I don't mean to sound like a Luddite in this regard, but we're talking about hard cash reality here, and what motivates the telcos to get them off their arses. The ILECs must elevate themselves to a level where they are competitive, but they don't have to become overwhelmingly so. There are stopgap measures already built into the system that would prevent that, anyway. (see below)
I say this because those cable modem pipes are going to get plenty jammed over the next couple of years, unless the MSOs take the necessary measures, immediately, to begin to offset the congestion factor. And it wont take star wars equipment on the parts of the ILECs to overcome the cable challenge, unless the cable guys get their act together as I suggest.
[[I don't know where to insert this in this message, so I'll put it here... Paradoxically, if the ILECs are exceedingly successful with their emerging and future "broadband" platforms, it could wind up getting them into a lot more trouble than they banked on with the regulators, as ironic as that might seem. Predatory pricing, restraint of trade, stonewalling, failure to permit access to designated colo areas, etc. We've seen it all before, and these are all givens, being part and parcel of what they must consider in their overall strategies, as they move forward. Forgive the disjointedness, but it's time to sit down to macaroni and meat balls in a few minutes.]]
My thoughts are that the ILECs, up until now, have been waiting for DSL/GR-303 buildout costs and service pricing to converge at a level where they could both be competitive, and still make a buck. I don't know if they are there yet. But as long as they wait, others are lined up to eat their ante pasta. Will the ILECs emerge with a suitable service offering response to the cable cos and the emerging wirelesses in enough time to be able to preserve their own macaroni and meatballs?
Oddly enough, I think that this is in a large way dependent on what the cable cos and wirelesses do next, and how they come to treat their own last mile dilemmas. It's a game of chess. Whaddaythink?
Regards, Frank Coluccio
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