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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (17204)	6/13/1999 9:16:00 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

The Bottom Line Excerpt from the EWT ST Update for 6/11 “Five waves down from Monday's high are done, or nearly so, at today's intraday low. This impulsive decline should be Minute wave one of Minor wave 3 or c down (from Monday's high). Due early next week is a Minute wave two bounce, so stocks are likely to start a rally sometime Monday. This view is supported by NYSE breadth, which was a little firmer today versus yesterday, despite an additional 131 point Dow loss on top of yesterday's 69 point decline. Normal Fibonacci and previous fourth wave retracement levels in the Dow are 10616-10692; in the S&P futures, 1320-1327; in the cash index, 1306.45-1311.91; in the OEX, 661-664.74; in the Dow Diamonds, 106-107; and in the S&P Spiders, 131-132. These levels are typical resistance for a bounce, but the crucial levels for the bearish case are Monday's highs. These highs cannot be violated or we will be forced to consider more bullish potential for the major averages. (These highs are 10917 in the Dow, 1352 in the S&P futures, 1336.43 in cash, 677.04 in the OEX, 109¼ in the Diamonds and just above 134 in the Spiders).” Elliott Count 10596 – 6/01 – 15:30--------(i) 10468 – 6/02 – 09:30--------(ii) 10485 – 6/02 – 10:30-----i 10478 – 6/02 – 11:30-----ii 10652 – 6/03 – 10:30-----iii 10604 – 6/03 – 14:30-----iv 10727 – 6/04 – 09:30-----v--(iii) 10690 – 6/04 – 12:30--------(iv) 10864 – 6/07 – 10:30-----i 10857 – 6/07 – 11:30-----ii 10913 – 6/07 – 13:30-----iii 10904 – 6/07 – 14:30-----iv 10909 – 6/07 – 15:30-----v---(v)---[c]---2 or B 10806 – 6/08 – 11:30-----i 10788 – 6/08 – 12:30-----ii 10740 – 6/08 – 14:30-----iii 10766 – 6/08 - 15:30-----iv 10702 – 6/09 - 11:30-----v----(i) 10690 – 6/09 - 15:30----------(ii) 10529 – 6/10 - 14:30----------(iii) 10621 – 6/10 - 15:30----------(iv) 10478 – 6/11 – 13:30----------(v)--- The Dow appears to have completed five waves down. As you must know, by now, any five wave sequence is ALWAYS followed by a correction which must obviously be counter-trend. The pattern a correction will follow is always uncertain. They are always difficult to count. We do however know that: (a) a cycle low is due in four weeks +/- one week. (b) an FOMC meeting is scheduled for the end of June. (c) the Dow has fallen 700 points in four weeks. (d) we expect it to fall another 700 points in the next four weeks. This will bring the Dow to 9700 approx. .382% of the run-up from the Sep low. Ç§ boards.fool.com

To: bobby beara who wrote (17204)	6/13/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

BB: On the NDX or QQQ thread I do point out the internuts tend to express the sentiment, and need to be watched, but as for what pushes the NDX physically it's not them. MSFT alone has enough weight in taht particular index that a 1 pt move in her pushes the index more that if ALL the internut stocks each move 5pts. Also at this time it's not the internuts that have the index jacked up, as a matter of fact the nuts have given up a lot of points, and if the NDX depended on them it would be much lower. It's true they are in the NDX mix ( but not AOL ) and for the most part they just don't have the market cap all put together tath AOL does. Yhoo is the most powerful with it's 27B but still nothing compared to AOL, and it may be a surprise to most, but all the NDX internuts could vanish and it would'n take as much money out of the market as most think. ( not counting CSCO as a NUT ) The drop in MSFT from her high has taken out 73.12B from the market cap..and that alone is more than as if all the internuts in the NDX had vanished. Other than CSCO the NDX is now run up on chip stocks, and such as FORE, ADBE, ADPT , INMX, SBUX ..and a few others, it's not the nuts. But I must concede the nut's send a good market signal, and it's likely if they keep going down the market will follow, still they are not big enough cap wise to be a pimple on the ass of MSFT INTC CSCO WCOM & DELL. While the news pundits may have people thinking the market depends on internuts..it's a joke, with all the wild speculation they still make up a very very tiny tiny part of the overall market cap. Jim