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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576600

Yougang, Yet, an excellen(t) and insight(ful) analysis by “Investor A” Fuchi lives!!! Scumbria

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: kapkan4u	Respond to of 1576600

<Yougang - re: (2) ASP to be below 78 -- Scott Allen, AMD's principal PR guy, said to ZD news.> YX, Good post. I think we may get a surprise here. Scott's statement was before the K7 yields. It is also possible that AMD is sandbagging a bit. Better bin splits on k6-2 475, k6-3 450 and mobile versions may contribute to an ASP closer to $85. We will see. Kap.

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Process Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576600

yougang - <Why AMD did not warn today?> AMD does not have to warn to have a dismal quarter!!! They said they expected ASP's to remain the same for Q2 during Q1 earnings release, and that has been reiterated by AMD spokespersons throughout the period. The only reason AMD would have to warn is if they had a major UPSIDE surprise, so I guess that isn't going to happen. PB

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1576600

Folks, we have just passed a very significant day today -- commencement of Q2's “Quiet Period”, without a warning from AMD. Last quarter AMD warned seven days before the earnings announcement. news.com

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: Cirruslvr	Respond to of 1576600

Yougang - RE: "Due to the unsold inventory, which AMD is still despertely looking to unload and only until the uninventory sold, the status of Q2 financials can be clear to AMD management, thus a later warn. Yet, an excellen and insight analysis by “Investor A” :) posted at JC's site yesterday evening seemed to strongly indicate that there is no substantial unsold inventory." I wouldn't consider that to be "The Word", just well reasoned speculation.

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 7:00:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 1576600

RE:"Why AMD did not warn today?"... Because flash will help earnings (losses) be better than expected. You know this... Jim

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 8:06:00 PM
From: grok	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1576600

RE: <Folks, we have just passed a very significant day today -- commencement of Q2's “Quiet Period”, without a warning from AMD.> Are you sure you've got this quiet period thing right? Doesn't it just mean that no selective disclosure in allowed such as to individual analysts? But non-selective disclosure is always allowed and could happen tomorrow or any other time. In fact last quarter AMD warned three times and two were during quiet time. Also, since AMD is a highly non-linear shipper, maybe they're just waiting until the end of the quarter to know whether they are better or worse than the already low expectation.

To: Yougang Xiao who wrote (61761)	6/14/1999 8:25:00 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 1576600

Yougang, I wouldn't be too excited about not seeing the warning today. All that means to me is that they do not have a known problem. They may still fall short of shipments or ASPs or any thing else that they are suscpetible to in the last 3 weeks. Think of this: xKu of K7s come back from the fab next week or the following and the yield is close to zero. No recovery is likely in the last week or two. This wouldn't be the first time or the last time for something like this to happen in the semiconductor industry. In other words, disaster is possible but not probable. For the Chuck R theory - I think you may have overstated my case for the K7. This quarter is getting quite a bit of support from Flash, Telecom chips (Asia is on rebound), K6 laptop numbers (I am expecting AMD to post yet another uptick in retail market share for laptops for May). K7 is the icing on the cake for this quarter. Even if they ship well over 50ku, it still pales in comparision to 5Mu of K6 units. It does have a very postive impact on the ASPs and profits though ;-) Cheers, Chuck