From EE Times
June 14, 1999, Issue: 1065
Section: News
Die size is still a problem but 'we just have to learn to deal
with it' -- Panel deems Rambus ready for PC prime time
Craig Matsumoto
San Francisco - Despite some jitters along the way, suppliers at a technology
conference here reported that the infrastructure is in place for Rambus DRAMs
to move into the PC market.
Die size remains a concern, suppliers conceded, but all of them maintained that
neither the 10-to-25-percent die-size penalty nor a higher price tag should
hamper the acceptance of RDRAM for high-performance PCs.
The panel, organized at the Warburg Dillon Read technology conference last
week, included Rambus Inc. chief executive Geoff Tate along with
representatives from DRAM suppliers and test-and-assembly executives.
Die size is the most critical handicap for Rambus parts and is not likely to see
improvement soon, panelists said. For Micron, 128-Mbit Rambus parts are 20 to
25 percent larger than their synchronous-DRAM counterparts, said Jeff
Mailloux, DRAM marketing manager for Micron Technology Inc. (Boise,
Idaho). Samsung Semiconductors Inc. claimed a similar number, while Hyundai
Electronics quoted 10 to 15 percent.
Those figures reflect the amount of work it takes to adjust to RDRAM
technology, panelists said. Die size is being sacrificed as manufacturers
concentrate on keeping yields high, said Avo Kanadjian, senior vice president of
memory marketing for Samsung.
"Sometimes a slightly [bigger] die size and a slightly improved yield can be a
good deal," he said.
Farhad Tabrizi, director of strategic marketing for Hyundai, said DRAM makers
had gotten "sloppy" with simpler parts such as extended-data-out memories and
would hit technological barriers that were likely to prevent a blitzkrieg ramp-up
of Rambus production.
"We just have to learn to deal with it," Tabrizi said. "At this time at Hyundai, the
die size is 10 percent [larger than SDRAMs], but there are other, additional
factors that disable us."
Rambus' price premium over SDRAM was not seen as a barrier by panelists,
who believe that PC OEMs will pay extra for the added performance. One
example mentioned repeatedly was the Sony Playstation 2, which uses Rambus'
memory architecture to drive its ultra-high-end graphics.
Rambus remains more expensive than SDRAMs, but panelists refused to
classify the two as competitors, saying they aim for different uses. As DRAMs
enter a new age where different types of memory apply to dif-ferent devices,
high-per-formance parts are worth more, panelists argued, and Rambus' price
tag should be irrelevant.
"Rambus is this nice, fast, sexy device. You want performance, you've got to
pay for it. There is no free lunch," Tabrizi said.
Memories account for 5 to 7 percent of a PC's cost these days, Kanadjian said;
panelists believe PC OEMs are willing to see that inch up to nearly 10 percent
for Rambus. "The OEM criteria is to have the Rambus memory fit within the
budget they've allocated," Kanadjian said.
Panelists' belief was that rather than compete with Rambus, the PC133
architecture will be relegated to the bottom of the sub-$1,000 PC zone, "a
natural evolution for the really low end," Tabrizi said.
In the end, whether Rambus can carry a premium depends largely on demand.
"If the supply exceeds the demand, the market will set the price," Kanadjian
said. "It [Rambus] is a commodity part, and it will be a commodity part."
Potential problems with royalties, packaging and testability all were dismissed by
panelists, who said the royalties aren't causing concern and the infrastructure
will be in place for Rambus DRAMs to hit the PC market. Tate of Rambus said
his goal, admittedly "aggressive," was to have RDRAM match SDRAM for
testability, packaging and PC-board cost by the end of 2000.
One question that arose was whether Rambus' strategy might strand its
memories at the high end, unable to decrease prices enough to become
attractive for mainstream PCs and unable to attract the mainstream volumes
that would help drive prices down.
Tate said that money from high-end PCs-which he said account for 20 percent
of the systems market-should suffice to fund engineering improvements to drive
down costs, which in turn would help Rambus find eventual acceptance in
mainstream PCs. And the high-end demand really exists, he said: "We've got
design wins already that require Rambus."
Other suppliers on the panel were convinced that Rambus would migrate down
the PC price chain, just as other high-end features have done.
Copyright ® 1999 CMP Media Inc.
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