To: MNI who wrote (12025 ) 6/15/1999 3:11:00 AM From: Neocon Read Replies (2) | Respond to
I am pleased that you appreciated the analysis. I understand your dislike of the use of the world "natural", although in idiomatic English there is a weak sense that means "the way things usually go", and that is all I meant.However, I will consider your objection seriously. Germany is the largest and wealthiest power, and therefore the likeliest to have contested the assertiveness of Russia, and to have formed alliances to that purpose, had it been in a position to do so.I also believe that decisions are crucial in history, and that the burden of responsibility is great. However, we can make no decisions without some degree of predictability, and just as there are ways that people commonly react, there are ways that states do, which is the basis for analysis in foreign policy. For example, Russia and China are the "revisionist powers", according to classical balance of power theory, and they find themselves constrained by a common "status quo power", the United States. It is not unexpected that they should consider collaboration, under the best of circumstances, especially now that more ordinary geo- political concerns have trumped ideological rivalry. The problem is that we seem to be pushing them together even more by our behavior, as they contemplate a world where their territorial claims and aspirations to enhance their stature might fall victim to the determination of the United States, and a willingness to use force in novel circumstances. The situation would be more dangerous if they were not both confronted with the need to create the economic infrastructure that will support their aspirations, and that depends on the openness of Western markets, and, in the case of Russia, on Western credits and investment. If we can integrate them more fully into the world system through trade, then we might avoid the worst. If not, things will likely get sticky in the future...As for the zones, I have not been everywhere, and certainly have not lived anywhere but the Washington area, but there is a strong sense of the differences, and nuances within the various regions, among many Americans. For example, the coastal states of the South are generally more "genteel" than states like Mississippi and Alabama. Most Marylanders live in the Washington or Baltimore suburbs, or Baltimore itself, and few of them think of themselves as southern--- but opinion is divided in the more rural parts of the state. Some people think of Texas as a Southern state, but most Texans that I have met view it as a Western state. Anyway, if you want to ask any questions, I am sure that either Derek or I will try to answer them...
