To: The Ox who wrote (9619 ) 6/16/1999 8:41:00 AM From: Tim J. Flick Respond to of 21142
Research Highlights from Chicago * While the cable equipment stocks did not move much during the NCTA trade show, the information from the show reaffirms our belief that cable equipment is one of the best sectors of communications technology right now, with a large, rapidly growing market, little competition and well-financed customers with clear strategic goals to build new service offerings. Estimates for next year should begin to rise in the second half. * The Scientific-Atlanta meeting included some overview comments from senior executives as well as a tour of the company's booth. The stock reacted well to news that the company intends to double its set-top capacity to 500,000 units per quarter by the end of 1999. If Time Warner begins to ramp its digital set-top deployment later this year, Scientific-Atlanta's revenue and earnings growth could be significant. * Consolidation of the cable industry into a handful of very large operators is creating much of the opportunity for cable suppliers next year. As new digital services become the major priority of these important customers with deep pockets, General Instrument, Scientific-Atlanta and others can see the cable supply business grow 30- 40%, perhaps, which is much faster than current published expectations. Near term, of course, there is still some chance that the consolidation process will slow growth in some markets: operators are unlikely to upgrade systems until they know for sure they will not be trading them for a different property. AT&T, for example, intends to consolidate more than 90% of its customers into less than 25 cities. At this point, the consolidation process does not appear to have affected the June quarter results of either GI or SFA; both companies indicate they are on track for the quarter. * International cable business is expected to re-accelerate next year. International customers were very visible at the show, and some international suppliers had booths for the first time, as well. If Europe, Latin America and Asia begin to rebound for cable suppliers, that will put further upward pressure on estimates for next year.