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To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/16/1999 1:19:00 PM
From: Lucretius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
 
oh shut up -g-



To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/16/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
 
I just recently came in on this but fwiw, I feel things are cooling in N. California, housing prices flat or declining, gas prices falling, we had an inflationary peak about 2 mos ago.

And regarding labor (specifically IT labor), the internet sector which is whats hot right now is not nearly as labor intensive as software which was the last "big thing". Some of these internet companies out here like ebay employ about as many sw engineers as we needed on ONE ERP implementation (Sap/Oracle). Business automation is hugely labor intensive and peaked last year. At the same time the internet sector was just starting to take off. That is when fear of IT salary inflation really took off, causing a loosening of restrictions on H1-B visa workers etc. But since that time, software IT requirements have completely fallen off and labor is more readily available. OK thats my story and I'm sticking to it.

Edit - oh I see Luc has told you to shut up, well forget I wrote this then since you cannot reply... once the encompassing "shut up" edict is ushered



To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/16/1999 1:27:00 PM
From: yard_man  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
 
but it sure looks like a conspiracy ...



To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/16/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
 
option 3.

1. the cpi is benign
2. it's fixed :)
3. buy C
4. sell C



To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/16/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86076
 
1. You have to admit that there is a strong incentive to "cook the books."

2. How can they get away with it? Well, why is GAO questioning the accounting methods? GAO administers, inter alia, federal benefits and pensions; federal retirees get COLAs. Also, if cost of living goes up, federal employees get raises. If there is a stronger lobby than federal employees and retirees, I can't imagine it.

I suspect that where there is smoke there is fire; GAO wouldn't be complaining if there wasn't evidence that the books are being cooked.



To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/16/1999 6:30:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005  Respond to of 86076
 
AntMan, I will take your challenge.

There is no doubt in my mind that the Govt numbers can be fudged the way you like them to be. Period. Is there is conspiracy? I can't say. Is it in anybody's interest on the Hill to see stock market drop 30% in a month? Heck no. They will not be reelecetd it did. Neither the repubs nor the democrats.

I have a lots of points to make. don't have enough time at my disposal for now. Suffice it to say some of your points are valid questions. I will get back to them later.

A simple answer to the Q on why I don't stay away from puts and shorts while I am crying foul is that - I believe in one fact - end to manias occurs when no one believes that the markets can be derailed. That's why I was hesitant.

One thing is clear, the bears will win this with a moral victory. But the casualties will be high on both bull camps and bear camps. The market will take no prisoners. There is a good possibility that I will be a casualty as well. Time will tell.



To: accountclosed who wrote (47510)6/17/1999 8:25:00 AM
From: re3  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 86076
 
my take on the whole shemozzle is this :

if (a big IF) you believe there is a conspiracy brewing on a stock, there is an excellent chance that any attempt to short it or poot it will not work anyway...if there is a 'they', then 'they' would have more resources than you anyway...

i know a feller who has been screaming the c word on a small cap stock here for years...its trading at the same 3 dollar level for years and he is margined up his wazoo...i told him, if (and i don;t believe it) but if there is a conspiracy , he will lose $ and if there is not, he just owns a bad stock...either way, its pointless to fight...

i think more of us on this thread (and I) need to play this mkt from both sides...making 'stands' is for college kids...

ike