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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (17578)	6/16/1999 1:40:00 PM
From: Trumptown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald...have you noticed the overall similarity in trends of this year to last year? The implication seems to be a rally into early/mid July...then...'boom boom - out go the lights'... SR

To: donald sew who wrote (17578)	6/16/1999 5:39:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 99985

<I am still expecting a ZIG-ZAGGING pattern for the rest of this week, so tomorrow could be down. > Donald, I expect a sideways zig-zag until 6/29, the FMOC determining the direction from there. Tomorrow, Mr. G. will deliver his usual tempering comments, attempting to dampen any rally without jerking it the other way. By the same token, the Committee will deliver what is expected, a moderate .25% rate hike on 6/29. As that is already priced into the market, a modest relief rally will follow. Earnings in July will determine the direction from there. As for the inets, it will be a long time before they exceed their April highs, probably sometime in the first half of 2000. Until then, they will continue to deliver excellent revenue growth and begin to show some more profits as a group. Thus, WS will have reason to measure them by more traditional methods. The recent buzz cut is the Street's first attempt at this process. Should interest rates rise another .50% by New Years, we may see lower lows. Otherwise, I am hoping we established those lows on Monday. Given current inet valuations, I still may be too bullish. It is definitely a time to reduce risk by eliminating margin, a goal I finally accomplished today <g>. Regards, Rob