To: bobby beara who wrote (17580 ) 6/16/1999 2:12:00 PM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Bobby, i looked at the XCI chart and it looks suspiciously as if your count may be a good idea. but: generally speaking, there are as many wave counts as e-wavers. this is not to disparage the method, it can be very useful at times. remember a post of mine not too long ago, where i mentioned the possibility that the fifth wave in the indexes could be still ahead of us. if, and that is still an if, this rally continues on good volume, i'd expect that to be the case. but it is still too early to discard the earlier count that called for wave five to be completed already. let me point out that bears according to investors intelligence have now fallen to slightly over 26%. when i discussed the possibility of another upleg starting you said to me that we needed more bearishness to develop before this could happen. one strong day should not make you waver with regards to that opinion. i know it doesn't look or feel that way, but today could still turn out to be a one-day wonder. i noticed a great deal of anecdotal complacency when i looked around yesterday, and i am convinced that today's action will serve to entrench it. there's nothing on the charts of the nutz as of yet that would suggest that the end of their downtrend is confirmed. thinking back to '87, in the weeks prior to the beginning of the sharp downturn, we had quite a few days that tested the convictions of even the staunchest bears. i am not saying that the '87 scenario is about to be repeated, i only mention this to illustrate how easily one can be thrown by short term moves in the market. i believe we can all agree that the extent of the correction so far has not been satisfactory. we did not get a true washout on heavy volume, and thus i still regard rallies with distrust.
