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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isdsms who wrote (63566)	6/18/1999 6:46:00 AM
From: PCSS	Respond to of 97611

Ira, That's probably true although I believe that DELL is in a much more precarious situation with their high PE relative to a) their growth rate % slowing (even though its GREAT) and b) ASP decreasing. If I ran CPQ I would continue to compete with DELL but lessen the head-to-head extra emotional & physical energies of this direct almost all-emcompassing war ... 'visibalize" your strengths, learn their methodologies and NOT try to duplicate them. GTW seems to be a bit better off though. Yet, if I ran CPQ I'd focus a marketing campaign right at their monthly-lease/internet-included thrust especially now that CPQ is(?) its 'own' ISP & owns a financial unit (there's profit to be made). It been surprising me that GTW has basically slid through the morasses lately. Additionally, unless I misunderstand one of the benefits of the channel co-location concept, CPQ is going to be alleviating a reasonably high percentage of its future inventory challenges and its resultant real/unreal/believed/much-thown-up negative in this arena. Just some thoughts Michael

To: isdsms who wrote (63566)	6/18/1999 8:28:00 AM
From: Captain Jack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Ira <<". It appears very unlikely that the dells and gateways will make money for their investors this year.">> I disagree. It looks like only CPQ will make money this year. The others actually already have made money!

To: isdsms who wrote (63566)	6/18/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

No doubt CPQ has negatively affected the entire sector sometimes intentionally. But HWP, IBM, Packard Bell, etc. also have their own problems. In an all out price war, every company would suffer. DELL the company has been least affected within the sector because it is the low cost producer (OPEX+ COGS). DELL can do well while the other companies are losing money on each machine they ship. DELL has many other advantages over the other companies including GTW. DELL will do fine this year but its main price appreciation will occur in the second half when business is strongest. Just do not expect 100% appreciation per year. 40% appreciation is a very healthy rate of return. CPQ's future is cloudy and it may end up being a much smaller company than it is today. Profitability is now many quarters away. This restructuring will ramble on for more than another year. They swallowed an unhealthy company (DEC) and now they have caught the disease.