To: Topannuity who wrote (5191 ) 6/20/1999 12:36:00 AM From: ChopChop99 Respond to of 16809
Top, eDollar, and all... I just started playing the IPO game a few months ago. My first allocation was PCLN through E*Trade. I flipped it on the second or third day @ 80-1/2 and regretted it as soon as I clicked the "Place Order" button. Hindsight shows that my seller's remorse was well-founded. Will they all be like PCLN? HA! Good grief, how I wish. Or more realistically, what I really wish is that I had realized sooner that the "every dot-com is a moonshot" era was over. That bubble had to burst, and we all knew it. But greed and denial caused me to hook up on dogs like NETO and CAIS, hoping that the era had a few more automatic winners in it. Well, that era is over. There will still be great IPOs, but we're gonna have to work harder and be more disciplined to choose them and leave the rest alone. So, with smarter selections, I don't think that I'll be facing the urge to flip in the future because my strategy from here forward will be to do my best to choose issues that I'd like to own for a few months or few years. I don't regret holding ETYS in the least, because I think it's gonna be a primo category killer for some time to come. Like everyone else, I'm disappointed in BNBN, but I still think it's a great long termer. As to flipping in some accounts and not in others, I understand your point fully and know that there are some quick bucks to be made. And to be honest, if I had the bucks to fund a bunch of accounts I might be doing the same thing. But I also think that this approach will be tougher and tougher to pull off as time goes on because of what I mentioned earlier. The flip accounts are gonna get weeded out more and more until the only issues a flip account gets are the ones that nobody wants. As to how to pick the winners, I think Top is off to a great start and has put together quite a system. I've done a lot of writing in the past and know how much mental effort and energy went into that post. Thanks, Top. Tomorrow when I'm more alert I want to put some scores to next week's issues. I've already done some analysis using those criteria, and my early results show ARBA, JNPR, and TWE as winners. To qualify that, I don't think TWE has the pop potential that the others do, but I also think it's a rock solid long term stock. Truth be known, I'm not even assure I can afford all three right now, but I'm not holding my breath for an ARBA allocation from E*Trade anyway. There's also one big factor that you mentioned in your other post on choosing IPOs in the thread that has its own topic, that you didn't list in this one. I call it the Buzz Factor, and think that it definitely needs to be included. You're right when you said that the vast majority of the big winners in the past had a lot of discussion going on before they opened. With that in mind, I scanned the threads on next week's issues both here and on Raging Bull, added the number of total posts, and called that the Buzz Factor. TWE won the Buzz ratings by a long shot with far over 200 total posts. ARBA and JNPR were hot, as well. STMP, SRCH, GMTN, GSPN, and RAMP appear to be generating next to no anticipation. Oh well, I've rambled so long that I hope it remained at least somewhat coherent. <g>