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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Puna who wrote (6064)	6/20/1999 12:24:00 AM
From: TD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

Get real liquid before everyone else! Read the golden-eagle article (URL) several posts back on this thread. You may consider reading Scary Gary (North) he gives a good overall picture of how to prepare for the coming unknown. Remember few get rich, usually by doing something others are unwilling to do. How many people are really going to hold currency and money(gold or silver) through the New Years Party? Money alone will not do much if the problems are severe, your additional skills and food supply may turn out to be what they always have been ....real wealth Good luck in whatever you decide. Personally I hope it is a bump in the road, but have studied way too much, IMO the US will suffer while most of the rest of the world is toasted. From several years of research, my prediction is that the international money system will break down (90% chance my number) Once that happens is does not matter who has the best Mercedes or the best Townhouse. FWIW td

To: Puna who wrote (6064)	6/20/1999 1:22:00 AM
From: B.K.Myers	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 9818

Puna, You bring up several of the same thoughts that I have had over the past couple of years. I thought that the Asian and Russian currency problems last year might trigger a sell off, but the market came roaring back. Based on what you state about yourself, your age, your “long-term” outlook and your expressed concerns about the market, it sound likes you should look at re-balancing your portfolio to a risk level that you are comfortable with. Because of the large run-up in stocks over the past few years, you are probably overweight in stocks. From all research I have read so far, there will be some varying degrees of serious problems as a result of this missing digit, some sooner, some later (like oil reserves). But if we can, lets narrow the focus to how this will directly affect the stock market and my portfolio. OK yours too. >What are the best and worst case scenarios Y2K could have on the Stock Market? Personally, I feel that an economic slow down or a recession next year is inevitable. This is my best case scenario. Even if Y2K is only a bump in the road, the contingency planning and “stock-piling” that is going on now will cause a sufficient slowdown in the economy next year to cause a recession. However, since this market does seem to care what the fundamentals are, I don't think that an economic slow down or even a recession will slow this market for long. The baby boomers are in their prime money making years and are furiously saving for an early retirement. Where else will they invest their money? Foreign investment is also influencing this market. Where else are foreigner (especially the Japanese) going to put their money? The U.S. stock market is the strongest in the world and will probably remain so after Y2K. There's just no place else to put your money. On the other hand, if Y2K causes serious problems, but short of a total meltdown, then prudent financial planning is essential. If problems are severe enough to cause unemployment to rise to 10-15%, then the stock market is bound to be seriously affected. The question here is, how long will it be before the economy can recover? If you believe that the stock markets react to economic events 6 months in advance and you believe that Y2K problems will start in January, then you should expect the market to start a down turn in the next month. This seems reasonable to me. One way that you could play this expected down turn is to buy “put” options. Or, you could risk losing some of your stock for some quick cash by writing covered “calls” against some of your shares. Obviously options are risky investments and these are risky times. When I read the following lines from your post: I have only recently become concerned that my stock investments may be in a precarious position as the first wave of Y2K reality in the Market place looms closer. (or is it already here?) How to navigate a stock portfolio that is primarily intended for the long term growth of each company in a Y2K climate. I may be self-sufficient in many ways but I would like to still have that retirement stash growing and available later! I sense that your portfolio is no longer balanced for your tolerance to risk, especially the risk associated with Y2K. You might want to consider moving some money from your riskier stocks to a more secure investment, possibly bonds or government treasuries. You might even want to keep some in a money market fund so that you can take advantage of lower stock prices next year. B.K.

To: Puna who wrote (6064)	6/20/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

OFF TOPIC - But, I found this very interesting: June 16 — The early-summer slide in Internet stocks highlights an important question: Exactly how did these stocks get so overvalued in the first place? One disturbing answer: apparent price-manipulation by underwriters at the time the companies went public. AN MSNBC.COM INVESTIGATION into the matter reveals that, in many cases, underwriters of Internet IPOs appear to have engaged in a widely practiced marketing scheme known as a “tie-in.” Its explicit purpose: to push up the after-market price of IPO shares ... The entire tie-in practice is, in fact, illegal. “Securities law can be very complex,” says Martin H. Kaplan, a securities lawyer with the New York firm of Gusrac, Kaplan and Bruno. “But this type situation is very simple and clear-cut. Any undisclosed tie-in that requires the aftermarket purchase of securities in order to obtain a pre-market allocation of stock in an IPO is per-se fraud and illegal. It violates the Sec. 17 fraud provisions of the Securities & Exchange Act of 1933, and Sec. 10 of the 1934 Act.” ... msnbc.com Cheryl

To: Puna who wrote (6064)	6/20/1999 9:46:00 PM
From: bearcub	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9818

dear hawaiian pickle, here is your list of questions (in italics) here is my attempt at sane responses (not in italics) What are the best and worst case scenarios Y2K could have on the Stock Market? Best case scenario: no effect, Fed Reserve keeps levitating the markets. Worst case melt down started by sell-off in banking stocks. Will there be a sell-off of stock resulting from a real or perceived Y2K disruption? (Many analysts believe it will be huge, some are even recommending to sell all stocks by fall) Yes, there will be because there already has been. Check the banking index 6 months ago to present, tell me what you see. If so in which stocks already answered. and in what months? since 'it' has ALREADY started, I would assume from now until the end of the year as money sloshes around trying to find THE financial ark of safety which doesn't exist. the closest thing to an ark of safety is not 'soil' from which you can be driven i regret to inform you. one of the things i've observed over the years is how the 'pro's' try to beat the traditional october sell-off triggered by mutual funds wanting to window dress at the end of september. these same pro's cover their being out of the market with complicated options schemes to mitigate risk which expire the 3rd friday in october unless they are flex options which have a flexible oct expiration date. these last 10 years or so, these pro's are selling sooner and sooner and sooner, all trying to outdo each other. and they haven't even been factoring in dealing with y2k prior to 1999 as they've tried to 'pick a get out date' that is most prudent for their annual bonus checks. let's be logical here, too, shall we? if you were a Fidelity Pro that wants to change your asset allocation to a higher percentage of cash due to y2k concerns, would you not publically go on record and 'say one thing and do another?' would you not say: 'i think september or october is a good time to sell and here's why:" all the time planning YOUR asset re-allocation (sneaking out) of your fund's portfolio positions much sooner? Who would sell 1st? insiders of course. and they have. many many many of them. and, since i have also already gone flat, i guess that makes me "more firstest" (as my youngest grandchild would say) relative to you. since the banking index has already taken a demonstrable hit as has the airline index (and the 22 hour model wringing/cashing out some $60+ eBay points (imagine how eBay will plummet after a 48 hour 'crash' let alone a 3 week crash due to lack of electricity for example)) the 'firsts to sell' have already left the game (and money on the table) without looking back even once. have you checked the roster of major corp CEO's CFO's and COO's who have already left the game and retired? or how about major gov't 'hire-ees?' can you name any who have left the game? How do we prepare for this? i don't know who the 'we' is in your question. i know that i already have prepared for this and i did it with logic and by disciplining of greed. and there are many many thousands like me. not millions, just thousands who have already left the game. i am truly amazed that you so openly, proudly, globally admit via this cyber vehicle, twice in the same post that 'you have case of said greed.' is this a trait for which you are particularly proud to be in the grips of? i, too, am a grateful and blessed AMERICAN. i do not share your generalization/belief all americans are 'greedy.' please don't make that egregious 'lumping' error again, at least in my presence. here is what amuses me: here we have a once every 1000 years event (1,000=long time horizon) coming dead ahead. only this time, this event's arrival is complicated by unfixed (and unfixable) computers. logical societal observers like myself, watch with amazement those who say they have a "long term investment mentality" who can't see or grasp how big a deal a once every 1000 years complicated event is; and who can't seem to see beyond the end of their 197 day admittedly greedy noses. what WILL it take to effect prudent, profit taking action based on this unprecedented, unavoidable LOOOOOOOOONG term event unfolding in LESS THAN 197 days? logically, mr. currently-finds-yourself-in-a-pickle, you will find yourself in one of 3 camps: YOU'll either sell on the way up or YOU'll sell on the way down or YOU'll become paralyzed with fear since you 'missed the top, and be waiting for a rally that doesn't quite meet your expectations. then you'll end up holding on all the way down. and for what? a few dollars more? (borrowing a Clint Eastwood movie title.) statistically, guess which one is most likely to be you? What will be the first signs of real trouble ahead? those of us awake and alert and able to discipline our greed have already have seen "THE" sign. it occured in banking sector. Alan Greenspan, reputedly the most powerful financial force in the entire world can't get the US banks and credit unions compliant because of one simple fact: *there is no redundancy system for the Federal Reserve, whose 'fed window' of course cannot be accessed without proper communications in place in the first place. And the2nd,* the deafening total silence and or outright fabrications regarding the true NON-COMPLIANT state of affairs of individual companies and sectors coupled with the moving ahead of compliance dates, forward another quarter and another quarter and another quarter. there are only 2 quarters left. How can we take advantage of this y2k ‘correction'? (sell at summer peaks, buy in again when there is signs of stabilization?) if you do not sell prior to the summer peak, then you will have no capital to buy AFTER the summer peak. this is just simple logic. what will be the indicators to hold? there are NONE! the time to sell is ALWAYS when a price is on its way up. when analysts issue a "hold" reco, it is ALWAYS a precursor to a sell signal, and ALWAYS after a buy signal. when will we know its time to get out? Or is there one? already answered. and all the other questions that spring up. too vague to specifically and logically address. Will the banks and brokerage firms be able to handle the potential of a major sell off and to what level? OF COURSE the banks will be able to handle the potential of a major sell-off. WHY? that too is logical: when something is "SOLD" it represents an influx of cash, not an 'outflow' of cash. that's all banks are trained and willing to do and have wanted to do for years: attract cash. bankers will be drooling all over themselves at the influx of cash due to the sell-off which has begun, ironically! in their own sector. Maybe when we decide it's too risky to hold our stocks and want to get out we may find we can't access the firms or they can't handle the volume because a panic sell-off has set in. that, too, is a logical expectation, because it has happened before. Or or or… are these sounds that a trained seal makes perhaps?