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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: HairBall who wrote (17953)6/20/1999 11:09:00 AM
From: dclapp  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
crude thinking:

IF the levels of the indexes are the result of Net Money Flow In/Out

And

IF Margin Interest was at an all-time high during April when we hit all-time highs in the indexes..

Then

we'll need greater dollar inflow OR (greater dollar inflow AND higher margin) to reach/exceed new highs

the question then becomes, I guess, how much of the April high was margin debt related

if we reach new highs driven, in large part, by huge margin debt, I would think the highs would be unsustainable in the short term and easy prey for the fabled big/smart money (the monster or angel in the closet, depending on your positions)

damn I hate math....

ps - a couple neat links:

A free Java and HTML implementation of the Island limit book:
isld.com

A site that offers probabilities of a user-entered option hitting the strike price:
aantix.com

Regards,

Doug