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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C Nelson Reilly who wrote (23528)	6/21/1999 8:58:00 PM
From: Rascal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Boy, Nelson, I really agree with alot that you say. Especially about Bob Pisani and his whining ways. I think the traders must make fun of him! Buy honestly, when it started hiting 90 and there was no good reason except manipulation by the BIG GUYS I started to get sort of Zen about it. I thought the capitulation you saw was a good sign and I couldn't wait for the cannons to turn. And they did. Enjoyed your post.

To: C Nelson Reilly who wrote (23528)	6/21/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: Tom Tallant	Respond to of 41369

C Nelson, Great post, as usual. <<I can almost hear Pisani now, though Lord knows that man haunts my dreams, confirms my nightmares, and otherwise ruins my summer days.>> LOL...the man makes me shiver when he opens his mouth. Best, Tom

To: C Nelson Reilly who wrote (23528)	6/21/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: Hobie1Kenobe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

C Nelson, Right on my man. When it traded just below 90 I felt like a deer in the headlights (just frozen in disbelief). In my frigid state I was unable to depress the keys that would have sealed my fate ( My July options were almost worthless and my Jan 2001 leaps were under H20 big time.) Fortunately my better half (who only trades recipes) asked me the $64,000 question - When do those options expire? - It became apparent to me that internet time was on my side. The fall was swift and ugly, the rally could be just as swift (even if it doesn't reach the 170 mark). Today my better half (who is also a former programmer)raised the Y2K issue as a real problem for the 4th quarter. Rest assured I am listening to my own "Trading Goddess" this time and planning some portfolio moves that will keep me from getting caught up in that grizzly trap. Good luck in the summer rally. JF3

To: C Nelson Reilly who wrote (23528)	6/21/1999 9:35:00 PM
From: Ed Forrest	Respond to of 41369

Subject: America On-Line (AOL) Preview Use Fixed Font....Terms of Use You are responding to this message from C Nelson Reilly on Jun 21 1999 8:50PM EST Re: 175 to 90 >>Maybe we should ask everybody on this thread to volunteer their thoughts as to how we went from 175 to 90 (with no bad news, great earnings, etc.) in just a few torturous weeks<< I'll tell you what happened. Word to the wise - I have botched this snapback rally worse than anyone I know. Take what I say with a huge grain of salt. Big money wanted to lock in the $30 - $90 runup in AOL. A TRIPLE for a mutual fund holding - can you dig it? Large institutional money always sells all the way down. When you want to lock in $90 what do you do? You run it up to $170 and sell ALL THE WAY DOWN. You may ask yourself why they would do this? IT LOCKED IN THEIR YOY PERFORMANCE. Big Money Boys are immensely satisfied with any positive return YOY, let alone what AOL had done for them. They keep their jobs and prance like pampered prescient prognosticating poodles when they call it right. Here is my scenario, based on what just happened to AOL and every other stock that enjoyed the immense March run-up: AOL was consolidating in the $90 range, absorbing the huge 4 - 5 month run up it had in its stock price (since the October low). I think Cramer even had an article about how AOL investors were pissed about the lag in the stock price in late February compared to other internet stocks. Seems we hovered around that price for quite awhile (in internet years). People couldn't believe that the other internet stocks were flying past their beloved AOL. Meanwhile, Magellan (and no telling how many other institutional owners) decides that a triple from the October lows is a LOCK FOR THEIR YEAR. What would you do if you wanted to dump 65 million shares to cash in your monster gain? You would BUY of course. You would whoop up the buying frenzy and get Maria to utter those magic words "STOCK TO BUY IN SIZE" from her admittedly lame post next to the AOL specialist. What happens when you hear those words STOCK TO BUY IN SIZE? It makes you think that it's OK to jump in, if the BIG BOYS are buying I can't be wrong. Big Money probably used 6 million shares as chum to unload the remaining 90% of their stock. How many people do you think looked at an exorbinant PE, an overvalued to the hilt internet play, a confused (or if you prefer - all encompassing) broadband strategy and decided to get in? Not too many, and the ones that did profited handsomely - IF THEY SOLD. Magellan dumped like 65 million shares onto the market with nary a whimper or loss of profits. Standard correction they called it. They wanted to lock in 90 and they got their wish. You and I bought all the way up (after all, how could huge block buys by institutions not be a good thing?) while they sold it all the way down. It doesn't take a licensed gravedigger to prepare your plot. Unfortunately, I saw this WAY LATE. By that time I had become FEARFUL OF THE MARKET (which is what they wanted) and I was too gone to see the truth. I admit it - THE BIG BOYS FAKED ME RIGHT OUT OF MY HEFTY JOCKSTRAP! I figured last Monday's selloff was the start of a massive internet capitulation. I WAS WRONG. I COULD HAVE BEEN RIGHT JUST AS EASILY. I BET ON THE NUMBERS, AND THEY WENT AGAINST MY POSITIONS. I still maintain that I am right to adopt a DEFENSIVE POSTURE and to lock in gains when and where I find them. The bears will have a great big stick this fall, namely the Y2K problem. Believe me, you will see the most negative spin imaginable on the least little YK2 glitch. I can almost hear Pisani now, though Lord knows that man haunts my dreams, confirms my nightmares, and otherwise ruins my summer days. However, I think we will have a nice little summer rally. Too much sideline money chasing too few quality issues, of which AOL is one. Yours in admittedly ambiguous amalgamations, C Nelson<<<<< IMHO you paint a pretty good picture. Ed