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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Johnson who wrote (7778)	6/24/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Dave, Currently I'm shifting $$$ from the recent buyout of another stock to Jabil Circuits (JBL). I think it will remain a great company in which to invest and, if history repeats, a good AIM candidate as well. It has growth and volatility. So, I guess it's my "favorite" right now. By coincidence last week's Newsletter had an AIM example showing AOL. Take a look at execpc.com I'll be updating the newsletter later today (a bit late this week!), so if the graph isn't shown in the letter, go to the Previous Reports and take a look. Basically, after about 5 years, $10,000 had grown to a peak of $465,000 (about half in cash) only to shrink back to about $350,000 in this recent reversal of fortune. It's interesting to note that in the pull back from $170+/share to $90/share, AIM used $60,000 of the cash reserve to buy back shares - 6 times what the initial total investment was! Now for the "bad news" - Mr. Buynhold would have peaked in total value at about $1,750,000. However, he would have given back 46% of that paper gain between the Spring highs and the recent lows. If we assume there's the beginning of a pattern forming in how the high fliers of the Internet are going to perform, it will take a few more cycles for AIM to catch up to the Buy and Hold investor, but once AIM owns more shares, it should remain ahead as long as the company survives and prospers. It remains a difficult challenge to determine just what the true fundamental value is of such companies. I've been an "equipment" type investor rather than a "service" type over the years. By being so, I missed a perfect opportunity to prosper with AIM from such stocks as AOL and others. Being afraid of the ephemeral nature of "Intellectual Property", I also missed the boat on MSFT! So, I'm not sure I'm the right person to ask about whether AOL is a good idea. However, I can assure you that AIM would have returned a handsome profit with a rational level of risk all along the way. Please note that in the 5 year history, AIM's Cash Reserve was drawn to ZERO, so it's not all been straight up since the start! I heard the guy from Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) say he'd be an active buyer of AOL if the price were to swoon to around $80. I don't think he'd have mentioned that number if he didn't feel that there was a real possibility it could actually get there. After all, that's only about $10 less than where it did bottom recently. That next $10 drop would have encouraged AIM's buying by quite a bit. I'd have to check, but I'd guess it might have used between a third to a half of the remaining Cash Reserves. Nice to think that AIM and the LMVTX guy are in concert with each other! Please let us know if there are any questions that come along as you get up and running with AIM. And WELCOME to the SI web threads! There's just about any stock you can think of discussed here. Not quite the "free-for-all" that YaHoo is presenting, but some pretty good information (and opinion!) on them. Best regards, Tom