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Biotech / Medical : World Heart Corp - WHRT and TSE/WHT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan Hamilton who wrote (274)	6/24/1999 1:36:00 PM
From: Rajiv Arya	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 500

This may have also contributed: biz.yahoo.com Can any comment on the significance of this. Thanks.

To: Dan Hamilton who wrote (274)	6/25/1999 10:54:00 PM
From: Mindshare	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 500

I recently attended an annual conference on artificial organs. Thought I would post some impressions of each of the major players. All of them were well represented as this was the major annual conference. TCI (HeartMate) - CEO gave presentation. Very calm and laid back. He's been in this field for a long time. Currently, they are implanting 2 pumps/day. This is a far cry from projected 20,000/year, but still the leader by a comfortable margin. Results of pneumatic and electric driven pumps were similar. Electric pumps ramping up nicely. Clearly, they are in front and know it. Are they vulnerable to competition? Definitely yes, but they are responding. Heartmate II (axial flow) due for human clinical trials this year. Internals of pump are being coated with titanium beads identical to pulsatile pump to grow biological layer. This is a bad idea in my opinion, flow velocities are much higher in an axial pump and could flake off biological coating. Novacor - Several presentations made about the Novacor LVAS. One concerned the FDA PMA (pre-market approval) process. Over 100,000 pages of documentation were submitted at a cost of $1M. This seemed ridiculous to me. Still too much bureaucracy in the FDA. Clinical pump data was good, but not as good as TCI's. Still concern over clot generation. Bottom line, TCI's device is better. Thoratec - These folks seemed to have been in the field the longest. More clinical data than anyone. Simple and reliable device, but not very patient friendly. Drive package is carried around on wheels and is bulky. Pump is not implanted (I think). No plans for electric driven version, so will always have skin penetration. This will seal its fate when fully implantable device is commercially successful. World Heart (HeartSaver) - Talk was not given during main session, but was presented in later session. Unfortunately, I could not attend this session. However, they were well represented in the booth sessions. Very impressive booth. Actual device on display. Much smaller than I anticipated. Very well packaged. One concern is the sack of hydraulic fluid. If it leaks, its bad news. Marketing materials were superior. Bottom line, if the thing works longterm they will be a major player. Question is does the thing work longterm. Not enough data yet to say yes or no. Tofy seems knowledgeable. He appears to be a good motivator. Jarvik 2000 - Jarvik was supposed to talk, but didn't make it. Speaker gave funny presentation. Lots of good natured jokes. Axial flow device is coming along nicely, but the effort seems to lack focus. They seem to be all over the place with no clear milestones. Could be a dark horse, but need to announce human trails soon or will be passed by competitors. The whole thing is implanted inside the left ventricle. Novel idea, but maybe too intrusive. DeBakey VAD - Multiple presentations given by foreign and domestic surgeons, CEO, and researchers. European doctors involved in first implants were visibly excited about early results. US surgeon overseeing implants talked of patients having no pulse during first few days after implant. Confused nurses thought blood pressure monitors had broke. After several days, pulsatility returned. Need for feedback sensing to control pump speed was expressed. This is in the works according to Micromed. Overall, very upbeat with second round of implants to start very soon. Summary: If I were to rate the stocks based on device potential, assuming the market will materialize, it would be as follows: TCI Heartmate - Hold, but buy on dips (could be bought out for a premium). Best revenue growth outlook. Novacor - Part of Baxter so not traded. If it were traded independently, Hold and sell on strength. Could also be sold to other company, but not for premium. Thoratec - Hold. Revenues will grow but slowly. Most vulnerable to competition, but most trusted device by surgeons. WorldHeart HeartSaver - Buy at current levels, but don't bet the farm on it. Not enough data to guarantee future revenues. Could see major stock appreciation, but it's years away. Jarvik 2000 - Who knows. Very possible it will never make it to market or just as easily could dominate. DeBakey VAD - Not public but would buy as soon as it is. Possible Micromed IPO mentioned at conference. Initial clinical data looks promising, but longterm may prove inferior. Competition is close behind. Upcoming year will be critical to build confidence among surgeons and regulatory agencies. Seems to be exceeding expectations and surprising people. One note though. I was disappointed in the market potential for any of these devices based on conference proceedings. Did not seem like a multi-billion dollar industry in the making. Patient stories were great and devices are definitely needed. However, the numbers are just not materializing. Devices are a last resort and may stay that way for a long time. This a long term investment (> 5 years), but probably as good as any other outside the Internet sector. Could be as big as pacemaker market because of high unit cost and minimal price competition. Have not invested yet, but if TCI's numbers pick up, watch out. TCI is the key for future market potential. Mindshare