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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6255)	6/24/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Demosthenes	Respond to of 15132

MrGJ, <<I wonder what Bob's thinking would be if not one but two rate increases became a realistic expectation. I wonder if Bob would reverse his thinking about making new highs and exit a bit sooner.>> A good question. My first response is that there is 60 days between FOMC meetings, plenty of time to make new highs before the next increase. Second, Bob repeatedly says he leans on the "timing model." So, I don't it's so much Bob changing his mind as it is what the model says. Rgds, D

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (6255)	6/25/1999 12:49:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 15132

MrGreenJeans re<<<<<< I wonder what Bob's thinking would be if not one but two rate increases became a realistic expectation. I wonder if Bob would reverse his thinking about making new highs and exit a bit sooner.>>>>> I think Bob was quite clear if not adamant that we need to see new highs for a bear market call and that a bear call from his model does not come out after we've already corrected somewhat. I think it's a pretty gutsy call in a way but he obviously has historic and other reasons to feel that way. He also stated it will be difficult to make progress unless rates improve something most wouldn't question. With this low volume testing sort of action and rates as high as they are we have room for a bond and stock rally so I'll sit and give new highs a chance. From a fundamental basis I can see a big rally after or around the time of the rate increase but I don't know how big a problem a continued bias to tightening will be. Finally if the market collapses or crashes without a bear call from Bob as he has always said the market will do what the market will do and he doesn't have a crystal ball etc. but a scenario of a move to new highs keeping valuations extreme and giving a chance to push sentiment more bullish seems reasonable at this point Marc