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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (24181)	6/27/1999 3:41:00 PM
From: Teresa Lo	Respond to of 41369

Thanks for the insight.

To: Robert Rose who wrote (24181)	6/27/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: Bridge Player	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

<< many individual investors like myself live, eat and breath the internet, and to abandon these stocks would, on an emotional level, be like abandoning a baby. >> Absolutely correct, Robert. The cult of the internet, as postulated in recent posts here (I believe it was by Pruguy) is indeed an emotion-driven cult. Unfortunately, investing, or trading, or speculating, or whatever your choice of terms is (and I realize that these terms all have different meanings and definitions) is least likely to be successful when it is done on an emotional level. That is precisely what has attracted me to read, and post to, this thread. The extreme bullishness that existed here in the Feb-Mar 1999 time frame is largely responsible for my bearishness on AOL. [And also the fact that AOL went up 8-fold in a mere matter of 6 months.] A few posters here have accused me of hating AOL. This is another manifestation of emotional knee-jerk response to anybody who has the nerve to suggest that AOL may be overvalued and due for a fall. I do not hate AOL. I believe that the company has a very successful business model and is likely to continue to grow at a compelling rate. Maybe as much as 50-60% going forward. That would be amazing. Few companies grow at that rate very long. Those that do usually achieve PE ratios as high as 50 or 60 times earnings for extended periods. This has nothing to do with either TA or fundamental analysis, although I believe that both are important. It is simply a belief that bullishness at an extreme level is an indication that things are about to change. And I believe that that change in the price, and valuation levels of AOL, has begun. BP